Vote 2010 Elections: Forecast for Next Congress? Gridlock with a Chance of Shutdown
Nov. 1, 2010 -- Lost in the political world's focus on what will happen in tomorrow's midterm election is the fact that no matter what the exact result, Congress is likely to get a whole lot more combative -- and a whole lot less productive.
Depending on your point of view, that could be a good thing or a bad thing. But either way, get ready for two years of partisan gridlock.
With Republicans set to win seats in the House and the Senate -- likely outright control of the former and possibly even the latter, too -- the Democrats' solid majority on Capitol Hill seems certain to become a thing of the past. And with it, analysts say, their ability to pass sweeping legislation such as the health care act and the Wall Street reform bill.
"All the various political scenarios after Tuesday's election are equally slow and grinding," said Julian Zelizer, a professor and congressional expert at Princeton University. "If Democrats keep control of Congress, their margins will be very narrow and the Senate will only become more difficult to govern because the majority will be much smaller. If Republicans take control of Congress, that will make for real gridlock because if you have Congress divided with the White House's position, there will be very little possibility for agreement on any of the major issues."
In recent days both parties have used the prospect of such a deadlock as a means of encouraging voters to support them on Tuesday. Democrats have implored voters that a stalemate would dash any of their big plans for the next two years, while Republicans have said it would boost their chances of taking back the White House in 2012.
"If we lose in the House or in the Senate, we're now in a position where we are in a stalemate and this thing is just going to go in reverse and our most powerful weapon will be a veto pen, and that's bad," warned Vice President Biden at a fundraiser last week in New York City.
Across the political aisle the Senate's top Republican, Mitch McConnell, told National Journal magazine that "the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president."
