If you're a close political observer, you may remember that, in December, New York's top court ruled that the state's congressional map must be redrawn. The state's redistricting commission was ordered to submit a new map by Feb. 28, although observers believe Democrats and Republicans on the commission will probably not be able to agree on a single proposal. That would kick the redraw over to the Democratic-controlled state legislature, which would likely draw the new map in a way that favors their party.

Since this special election is to fill the term that Santos was elected to in 2022, today's election was always going to take place along the 2022 lines regardless of redistricting developments. But whoever wins today will have to immediately turn around and campaign for reelection in a district that looks at least a little bit different — and probably bluer, if the legislature does indeed get its way.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Long Island has been friendly territory for Republicans in recent years, but Democrats are trying to take advantage of this unexpected opportunity by highlighting a familiar issue: abortion rights. It's an issue they've been hammering home in races across the country, and one where local sentiment and national Republican politics are wildly out of step.

Abortion has been legal in New York since 1970, three years before Roe v. Wade was decided, and this November, a referendum that would ban discrimination based on sex and gender and enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution will appear on the ballot. New York is one of the states most supportive of abortion rights in the country, with 71 percent of residents saying it should be legal in all or most cases in a Public Religion Research Institute survey from last year.

But while abortion access isn't in danger at the state level, Suozzi is arguing that electing a Democrat in today's race is critical to protect it from Republican efforts to enact a federal abortion ban. Though Pilip says she would vote against a national abortion ban despite being " pro-life," the Democratic National Campaign Committee is running ads warning that Pilip "is part of the extreme wing of the Republican Party that wants to take away your rights and benefits."

Suozzi's message seems to be working. In a Newsday/Siena College Poll from Feb. 3-6, 67 percent of likely voters in the district said they think Pilip would vote with Republican leadership to enact a national abortion ban, and 55 percent thought Suozzi would do a better job addressing abortion. That said, only 4 percent of voters in the district named abortion access as the "most important issue facing New York" in an Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey last month, with issues like immigration and the economy more top-of-mind.

—Monica Potts, 538

The event that precipitated today's contest was a highly unusual one: a congressional expulsion. On Dec. 1, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 311 to 114 to expel Santos, surpassing the two-thirds majority necessary to remove him from office and leave New York's 3rd Congressional District seat vacant. This marked just the sixth expulsion in House history and only the third since the Civil War.

After winning the 3rd District in the 2022 midterms, Santos quickly became an infamous figure. He currently faces a 23-count federal indictment that includes charges for wire fraud, money laundering and falsifying campaign finance records. Santos survived an initial floor vote to expel him in early November, but his position became more untenable after the House Ethics Committee handed down a report in mid-November that documented more alleged crimes, including redirecting thousands of dollars from campaign funds for personal use.

In the leadup to the expulsion, Republicans had contentious internal and public deliberations over how to handle Santos, in part because of the downstream political consequences of his ouster. With the GOP holding just a 222-to-213 seat majority before Santos's expulsion, each Republican vote was critical to maintaining control of the chamber — which remains the case, as demonstrated last week when a Republican-led effort to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas failed by one vote. And because the 3rd District is highly competitive, expulsion risked handing a seat to Democrats in an ensuing special election. Nevertheless, House Republicans split about evenly on the question of expelling Santos. And with most Democrats voting for the measure, that was enough to remove him from office.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The battle for control of the House in this November’s elections goes right through New York, making tonight’s special election a critical test run for both parties. Republicans just barely grasped the House majority in 2022, largely as a result of the party’s success in historically Democratic areas of New York. Republicans claimed six open seats in districts that Biden carried two years prior, including three in Long Island. One of those was the Biden +8 seat that Santos flipped after then-Rep. Suozzi decided to run for governor instead of a fourth term in Congress. On the eastern end of Long Island, Republican Nick Lalota won a seat that Biden carried by a fraction of a point, while Anthony D’Esposito flipped a seat just south of the 3rd District that Biden carried by 15 percentage points.

Outside of Long Island, Republicans are defending three more Biden districts across the state. That means Democrats, who need to pick up about five seats in 2024 in order to win the House majority, can do most of the work in New York. But first, they have to figure out how to get past the concerns about Democratic leadership across the state, especially on the issue of immigration. So even if New York’s 3rd Congressional District doesn’t exist in its current form by November — redistricting could make the seat safer for Democrats this fall — the lessons learned by each party will inform messaging and strategic decisions across the state.

—Leah Askarinam, 538

There are not many polls of today's NY-03 special, but those we do have suggest the race is close. Since mid-December, when the Democratic and Republican parties selected their nominees, public pollsters have released four surveys of the race. On average, they show Suozzi with a lead of 3 percentage points over Pilip, but that's within each surveys' margins of sampling error. And given there are only four polls, their average also comes with hefty uncertainty.

It would be wise not to take these polls as precise predictions from the Oracle of Delphi. For one, three of these polls show no candidate winning more than 50 percent of the vote — often a harbinger of uncertainty for a contest (and there’s no third-party challenger to suck up the remaining votes, so they’ll have to go to one candidate or the other). But for another, polls of House elections are typically less accurate. In doing the research for our new pollster ratings, I found that House general election polls are the second-least accurate category of poll, after surveys of presidential primaries.

As for narratives, the Siena College/Newsday poll conducted earlier this month shows a familiar lay of the land. Voters said Pilip would do a better job on immigration and lowering taxes, while Suozi ranked higher on protecting democracy and abortion rights. When respondents were asked who they'd vote for if the presidential election were held today, they picked Donald Trump by a 5-point margin (47 percent to Joe Biden's 42). That would be in line with the district’s recent swingy vote history; NY-03 has a 538 partisan lean of D+4 points and Biden would have carried the district by 8.2 points in 2020, while Santos won it by 7 points in the 2022 midterms.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538