Fallica and Coughlin's best Week 1 CFB bets
— -- After an impressive 2015 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay are back. Every week during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games and, as a bonus, give one pick apiece free of charge.
2015 season record:
Fallica:?53-40-3 ATS (55.2 percent)
Coughlin:?38-29-3 ATS (54.3 percent)
2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)
Note: Against the spread (ATS) and total picks are in bold. Odds are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Oklahoma Sooners (-11.5) vs.? Houston Cougars
Over/under: 68
Do you think Bob Stoops and his staff have been drilling those things into the minds of the Oklahoma players? Yeah, I do too. Take into account that the Sooners have Ohio State and a trip to TCU within the first four games of the year, and it's easy to see how the Cougars will have Oklahoma's full attention. In looking back at last year, Houston kind of had a perfect storm: It caught Louisville early in the year when the Cards' QB situation was a mess, it had a couple of home comeback wins and held a huge emotional edge over Florida State in their bowl game.
The Cougars lost a larger number of key contributors than one may realize. I'd be surprised if this was close in the fourth quarter.
ATS pick: Oklahoma 38, Houston 20 (Confidence 8/10)
Coughlin:?This is my favorite matchup of experienced quarterbacks in the opening weekend. Not to put any more pressure on Cougars QB Greg Ward Jr., but no other team in the country has more to lose than Houston. If it falls to the Sooners, they won't get talked about until November. I'm really interested to see the development of Sooners QB Baker Mayfield without his No. 1 target, Sterling Shepard, and how well he adapts without Shepard is the biggest determining factor in whether or not Oklahoma has a successful season.
We know how good Sooners RB Samaje Perine is, as he needs only 1,054 rushing yards to become No. 1 on the all-time Oklahoma rushing list; he starts the season in 10th. Just think about some of the names on that list. After the season Houston had last year, you can bet that Tom Herman's crew has the full attention of Mike and Bob Stoops too. Houston led the country in takeaways, and they are going to have to create numerous turnovers to hang around in this game. I see both offenses having big days and see a bunch of points being scored. Take the over.
Pick: Oklahoma 49, Houston 24 (over the total of 68 points)
UCLA Bruins ( 3) at Texas A&M Aggies
Fallica: I think the UCLA defense has a chance to be very good this season, and the Bruins have a huge edge in the QB position in this matchup. The only big question is whether or not the UCLA offensive line can hold its own against Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. I hear Josh Rosen loves the new offensive scheme -- note that former offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone is now at Texas A&M -- and I don't think there will be a drop-off at all at the RB position with Texas native Soso Jamabo replacing Paul Perkins.
The last time we saw Trevor Knight, he was 5-of-16 with an interception as the Sooners nearly coughed up a huge lead last year vs TCU, when Baker Mayfield was sidelined with a concussion. As big as the perception that Kyle Field is a big home field advantage is, keep in mind that the Aggies are 1-6 there vs. ranked opponents under Kevin Sumlin. I think the Bruins go into College Station, win and set themselves up for a run at the College Football Playoff.
ATS pick: UCLA 28, Texas A&M 24 (Confidence 8/10)
Coughlin: My partner, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, on the Behind The Bets: The College Years podcast last week, brought up the question of who among all of the SEC Coaches is under the most pressure in Week 1. Many have answered with Les Miles, which I can't argue with, but I'd have to say it's Aggies' head coach Kevin Sumlin. With that feeling, I see A&M coming out with a huge effort at home in front of one of the best home crowds in the country. To hear defensive coordinator John Chavis this past week at his press conference saying, "We've got the best pair of DEs in the country ... wouldn't trade them for anyone else," makes me think that that he feels more confident in this defense than he did last year.
That means something to me because I think "Chief" is the best at what he does in the country. The combination of defensive pressure and the life of the 12th man, it seems like it'll be too much for Sophomore QB Josh Rosen. The trend of coaches facing the school they left in Week 1 continues with this game, as Aggies offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone faces the Bruins. I see a big day for the A&M wide receivers -- gig 'em and lay the 3 points.
ATS pick: Texas A&M 31, UCLA 23
