ANALYSIS: Hometown Wins Boost Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton
— -- In a campaign where both sides debated New York values, what New York values most is candidates who call it home, it seems.
The ultimate value of New York, though, is questionable in the march to the party nominations. Wins by the front-runners don’t alter stubborn mathematical realities that are likely to leave Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with company in the race for a while longer.
Trump blasted through his supposed ceiling by reaching a new high-water mark, and in the process kept his hopes of capturing a delegate majority alive. He did not and could not, though, significantly widen his narrow path to a first-ballot win.
Clinton dispatched with Bernie Sanders in the state Sanders was born in, and where Sanders outspent Clinton substantially. But neither this nor any likely subsequent wins will end the Sanders challenge, not to mention the issues his candidacy has elevated, to Clinton’s regular discomfort.
New York did serve a critical purpose for Trump and Clinton: both will walk away from the state with large caches of delegates, and give them leads that will be practically impossible to overcome.
“We don’t have much of a race anymore,” said Trump.
“Victory is in sight,” said Clinton, closer to the mark for both of them.
The results were a particular sting to Ted Cruz, whose victory over Trump in Wisconsin two weeks ago seemed to cement the perception of him as the one candidate capable of beating Trump. That perception suffers so long as John Kasich proves capable of running strong alongside Cruz, even if neither Cruz nor Kasich is capable of catching him in the delegate count.
But while a large group of northeastern states are still to come, the nation does not vote as New York does. The victories Tuesday were driven by geography and demographics far more than momentum, or changing ideas of what Trump and Clinton represent.
Trump offered a more accurate assessment of the race ahead with this line – clearly aimed at Cruz’s attempts to use party rules to win delegates he can’t win at the ballot box.
“It’s really nice to win the delegates with the votes,” Trump said.
The value now is in remembering that two races that have already lasted longer than anyone guessed will go on a good bit longer.
