Democrats get mid-decade redistricting wins, but roadblocks and high stakes remain: ANALYSIS
While Democrats have been celebrating some recent wins in the ongoing mid-decade congressional map redistricting sweeping the country, they face some roadblocks in Democratic-aligned states over building on those wins – and the future of President Donald Trump’s agenda remains at stake regardless of how long the battles drag on for.
Why Republicans and Democrats are trying to redraw seats
Which party controls the House after the 2026 midterm elections could come down to just a couple of seats. As of Thursday, Republicans hold 219 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives while Democrats hold 214, with two seats vacant.
If all of the seats are filled by the midterms, Democrats need to only net three seats to flip the House in 2026, allowing them to thwart Trump’s legislative agenda during the second half of his presidency. Republicans, meanwhile, hope to bolster their razor-thin majority and continue moving Trump’s legislative priorities forward.
That’s why fighting over five seats in one state or fewer in another matters so much.
The ongoing mid-decade redistricting also further narrows what was already a relatively small field of truly competitive seats. The Cook Political Report only rates 16 seats as of Thursday as a “toss-up” out of all 435 U.S. House seats. The ratings factor in states that completed mid-decade redistricting already.
Some wins for Democrats, but roadblocks ahead
Initially, it appeared like the new scramble of congressional map redrawing would favor Republicans. Texas legislators pushed through a map that redraws five congressional seats to favor Republicans; GOP-controlled legislatures or commissions in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio soon followed suit with maps that could allow the GOP to flip at least one seat in each state.
And Republican-controlled legislatures in Florida, Kansas, and Louisiana are mulling redrawing their maps and could box out even more Democrats.
Kansas may be an unusual case. Republican state legislators have discussed redrawing the state’s congressional map to box out the Sunflower State’s lone Democratic member of Congress, Rep. Sharice Davids.
But Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is staunchly opposed to mid-decade redistricting, and Republican legislators have indicated they will not be able to get enough signatures to bypass her to call a special session about the issue. Some have also indicated they want to resist White House pressure to redistrict.
A pending Supreme Court ruling in a Louisiana case might trigger more redrawing in favor of Republicans.
Democrats said they’d try to counteract that Republican push – and their first major win came when California voters chose on Election Day to vote yes on “Proposition 50," which will redraw their state’s congressional map to make five seats potentially winnable by Democrats.
(The Department of Justice on Thursday joined a legal effort by Republicans in California suing over the new map; Newsom’s office responded that “these losers lost at the ballot box and soon they will also lose in court.”)
After California, one less expected success for Democrats came about in Utah, which was redrawing its congressional map due to a court order.
A judge ordered late Monday that the state must adopt a congressional map proposed by plaintiffs in a lawsuit, ruling in favor of a map that includes a redrawn Salt Lake City-based district that leans strongly in favor of Democrats.
Utah’s four-member U.S. House delegation is currently fully Republican. The new map creates a congressional district centered around Salt Lake City that analysts say strongly favors Democrats.
And notable names are taking note. On Thursday, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams, who once represented Utah’s 4th congressional district, announced a run for the new district.
But further success for Democrats in mid-decade redistricting ahead of the midterms is not assured.
For instance, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has formed an advisory commission on redistricting, but state Senate President Bill Ferguson, also a Democrat, has said he opposes moving forward with redistricting.
Ferguson wrote in a recent letter, obtained by ABC News, to Democratic state Senators that “mid-cycle redistricting for Maryland presents a reality where the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is dangerous, the downside risk to Democrats is catastrophic, and the certainty of our existing map would be undermined.”
But Maryland U.S. Reps. Jamie Raskin and Steny Hoyer, both Democrats, wrote in a separate letter obtained by ABC News that Maryland Democrats should redistrict “to make Maryland House seats more competitive in a way that counters the Trump national steamroller.” The Baltimore Sun first reported on the letter.
Democratic state legislators in Illinois have, similar to Maryland lawmakers, not been entirely on board with possible redistricting, even though national Democratic leaders such as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are pushing for it.
A separate effort by Democratic legislators in Virginia to allow the legislature to redraw congressional districts is still moving forward, but will need to go through many steps before legislators can even propose a map. However, Democrats maintained control of the state House of Delegates and won the governorship in 2025’s elections.
How do Americans feel – and how long could this go on for?
Americans are caught in the middle of the redistricting struggle, facing confusion over who will represent them and what district they’ll be voting in. A Marquette University Law School poll taken in September found that 70% of American adults oppose states redrawing districts “to make them as advantageous as possible for the party with the majority in the state.”
And how long could the back-and-forth on mid-decade redistricting go on for?
It may depend on candidate filing deadlines, which are the dates by when a candidate needs to submit paperwork to get on the ballot for a state’s primary. In Maryland, for instance, the filing deadline for the congressional primary is on Feb. 24. In Kansas, it’s not until June 1.
If state legislatures aiming for new congressional maps haven’t passed them into law by then, candidates will likely still be filing to run in the current districts. Lawsuits or legislative action could change deadlines as well.
The real date to watch is Nov. 3, 2026. The midterms themselves will be the true test of whether Republicans or Democrats have won, lost, or fought the redistricting wars to a draw – and what lies ahead for Trump’s agenda.
ABC News' Brittany Shepherd, Emily Chang, Halle Troadec, and Alex Mallin contributed to this report.
