Indiana primaries show the political cost of crossing Trump: ANALYSIS
The message from Indiana’s Republican primaries on Tuesday was hard to miss: If you cross President Donald Trump -- even in a state legislative race -- he’s willing to come after you politically.
It’s rare that these kinds of state-level races draw national attention, but Trump turned them into a test of loyalty after the lawmakers opposed a mid-decade effort to redraw Indiana’s congressional maps in a way that would have aimed to help Republicans eke out more seats in the House of Representatives.
At least five of the seven Republican state senators who stood against Trump’s redistricting demands last year lost to challengers backed by Trump and his allies. One incumbent managed to survive despite the onslaught, while another race remains too close to call.
Trump never hid his intent. He put lawmakers on notice that opposing the redistricting push could cost them. Conservative groups like the Club for Growth and Turning Point USA poured millions into the races to boost Trump’s picks.
And for Republicans around the country, the results are likely to land as a warning.
The takeaway is not just that Trump still has influence in the Republican Party. It’s that he’s willing to use it aggressively against members of his own party who resist him, even far down the ballot. In Indiana, Republican voters largely sided with Trump over incumbents who had already built relationships in their districts and statehouses.
Now attention turns to whether those same dynamics holds elsewhere.
There are already other Republicans facing questions about whether they can politically survive after falling out with Trump. Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky could be the next targets of Trump’s political vendetta.
Cassidy has remained a subject of Trump’s ire since his vote to convict the president in his impeachment trial after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Massie has repeatedly broken with Trump and Republican leadership on spending and foreign policy fights. He has also pushed to release the Jeffrey Epstein files.
Additionally, the Indiana races could have broader implications for redistricting battles unfolding across the South and in other Republican-controlled states. Legislatures weighing whether to redraw congressional maps ahead of the midterms are now seeing what can happen politically if lawmakers rebuff Trump’s push.
Trump is the most powerful force in Republican politics and defying him can carry real political risk.
