What are the swing state paths to 270 electoral votes for Harris, Trump
As Election Day grows near, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are still in a tight race to cross the 270 electoral college threshold based on recent polling.
The two candidates are within the margin of error in the swing states, as Harris has a slight lead in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump has small leads in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, according to 538's polling average as of Friday.
Previous elections have shown that the outcome of national races has swayed from the polling numbers, so it is still anyone's game.
However, given the data, there are a few likely scenarios where each candidate can win the Electoral College votes and the presidency.
Assuming the polls accurately reflect the final results in the states, Trump would win in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona and win the election with 287 electoral votes.
The former president's lead in those states is no more than 2.4 percentage points, well within any major poll’s margin of error, according to 538 data.
If the polls understate Harris' lead, she could earn exactly 270 votes by winning one electoral vote in Nebraska, as well as all of the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, if she wins those states.
If polls are understating Trump's lead, he could have the advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 268 electoral votes. Winning Pennsylvania would put him over the 270 limit in that scenario.
Over 65 million Americans have voted as of Friday morning, which is 40% of the 2020 turnout; however, there is no real data from those votes that will determine who will win the race.
The early voting data has shown that the majority of early voters are women, a fact that the Harris campaign and Democrats have been touting.
However, the data also shows that 41% of the early voters are registered Democrats, versus 39% of registered Republicans. In the same period in 2020, 45% of early voters were registered Democrats and 36% were Republicans, according to the data.
