Facebook Users 'Like' Republican Candidates Over Democrats by Landslide
WASHINGTON, Oct. 29, 2010— -- If "liking" a political candidate on Facebook is any indication of how active users of the world's largest social network will vote Nov. 2, Republicans could be in for a landslide victory.
Among U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates who have Facebook profiles, Republicans have more than twice as many fans as their Democratic opponents, according to the latest Facebook tabulation of nationwide data.
Eight of the top 10 candidates with the most Facebook fans are Republicans, with Arizona Sen. John McCain, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer and California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman taking the top three slots.
Whitman's support on the social network has also been the fastest growing of any candidate, with an average 5,200 fans "liking" her profile each day, the survey shows.
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Meanwhile, Tea Party-backed candidates for U.S. Senate showed the most robust momentum toward building their online fan base heading into the final week of the campaign.
Nevada Republican Sharron Angle has added more than 6,700 fans since Oct. 20, giving her nearly 10 times as many Facebook fans as Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
"It boils down to momentum and enthusiasm, and tried-and-true measures for predicting elections," the Facebook Political Team wrote in its analysis. "If the online world translates into real world votes, Angle definitely appears to be the favorite coming down the home stretch."
Angle and Reid are neck and neck, with the Republican holding a slight advantage, according to the most recent polls.
In 190 competitive U.S. House races tracked by Facebook, Republicans can claim a Facebook fan advantage in 127.
Minnesota Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann, who chairs the House Tea Party Caucus, has the most fans of any U.S. representative and 100,000 more than her opponent, Democrat Tarryl Clark.
"This is a good indicator of which party has momentum and which groups are engaged," said University of Minnesota communications professor Heather LaMarre, who studies the role of social media in politics. "I am not sure this will translate into voter turnout, but if it does, we have opened the door to an entirely new way to predict elections."
The numbers, while far from scientific and not limited to supporters within a given state, broadly affirm what national polls and focus groups have been saying about the enthusiasm levels among supporters of both parties in recent weeks.
LaMarre said social media experts will be closely watching the returns Nov. 2 to see if Facebook fan bases are predictors of turnout at the polls.
"The people who are engaged regularly in social media to follow politics seem to be more informed of the issues, more committed to giving money and volunteering for campaigns, and those indicators are highly correlated to voter turnout," she said.
