6 Shocking Air Travel Predictions (Some of Which Actually Came True)
— -- Does this sound familiar?
"Flight delays and cancellations at a rate of more than 25 percent (yes, that's 1 out of every 4 flights); a record number of lost bags and planes packed to capacity. And the airline industry scored below the IRS in customer satisfaction."
That's not about the recent snowstorms in the Northeast; it's something I wrote for my first ABC News column back on Feb. 13, 2008. What a year that turned out to be.
The year 2008 ushered in the era of bag fees, some crazy airfare prices and some quirky predictions that came true - or not - in sometimes surprisingly shocking ways. I combed through my old columns and thought you'd enjoy some of these “predictions.” Some were pretty crazy; others were extremely crazy but came true anyway.
1. Low-cost carriers are all going to die.
It's the spring of 2008 and many airline analysts are absolutely convinced only the big boys - airlines like American or Delta - will still be around in a year or so. They had a point; by April four discounters had gone under (Aloha, ATA, Skybus and Skyway).
My response was a resounding "Baloney!" and I was right. Indeed, one of those low-cost carriers that presumably should have rolled over and played dead has since transformed itself into the biggest domestic airline in the country. Nice going, Southwest.
2. Oil will kill all the airlines.
Speaking of Southwest, 2008 was the year the airline's CEO Gary Kelly said, "No airline can make money at $123 a barrel." Yes, oil prices were going crazy and they'd get even crazier a couple of months after he said that (nearly $150 a barrel). So how did the airlines make money, how did they survive?
Fees. The same month Kelly made his oil statement, American announced it would start charging for bags. As shocked passengers tried to digest this, other airlines quickly hopped aboard the fee train.
3. Those crazy fees will get super-crazy, super-soon.
The era of the baggage fees brought lots of zany predictions on bizarre fees of the future, and I had a couple of tongue-in-cheek ideas. One was child-free seating. Another was overweight passengers’ paying-by-the-pound. Still another was a fee to get beverage-cart service whenever you wanted.
A few years later, it all came true. Sort of. Malaysia Airlines began offering child-free zones on some flights (later joined by discounter Scoot), while in 2013, little Samoa Air shocked observers with pay-by-the-pound airfare pricing. As for that beverage cart, hurray for Virgin America; all its passengers can order food and drink on-demand with no fee whatsoever.
4. Wi-Fi will ruin everything.
Most of us were worried about loud phone calls on planes, made by those crazy young people. I even cited some statistics: "While polls generally show folks like cell phones on a plane as much as snakes on a plane, when it comes to younger folks (18 to 34), nearly half of them said 'yes' to cells."
As I sit on a plane working away quietly on my phone (like everyone else), I have to wonder: What we were so afraid of?
5. That nutty Knee Defender is fun.
The first time I ever mentioned this small plastic gadget was in October of 2008, when I jokingly suggested it might come in handy to deter rude passengers who insist on reclining seats so far back they smash your knees. As it turned out, using this gizmo could be a very bad idea, as we saw last summer when a United flight diverted to dump off a couple of rowdy passengers.
