6:26
- ABC News
- January 5, 2024
Who stands to gain if DeSantis drops out?
We take a look at Republican voters' second choices in the primary.
6:26
Compare that to second-choice polls of Christie's supporters, which suffer from the same problem of small sample size but likewise paint a consistent picture. In every poll we collected, a plurality or majority of Christie supporters said they would support former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley if Christie were not in the race. Very few said they would support Trump, Ramaswamy or DeSantis.
Polls conducted since Nov. 5, 2023, of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's supporters' second choices in the 2024 Republican presidential primary
| National | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | DeSantis | Haley | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| YouGov/Georgetown/ University of Pennsylvania | Nov. 17-27 | 10 LV | 10% | 40% | 10% | 0% |
| NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ | Nov. 26-27 | 32 RV | 9 | 47 | 9 | 16 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | Dec. 7-10 | 9 LV | 22 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| Suffolk/USA Today | Dec. 26-29 | 14 LV | 7 | 79 | 0 | 7 |
| Average | 12 | 50 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Iowa | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | DeSantis | Haley | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| Civiqs/Iowa State University | Dec. 8-13 | 16 LV | 2% | 47% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College | Dec. 15-17 | 19 LV | 9 | 26 | 0 | 14 |
| Average | 6 | 37 | 1 | 11 | ||
| New Hampshire | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | DeSantis | Haley | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| Emerson/WHDH-TV | Nov. 10-13 | 41 LV | 9% | 44% | 3% | 0% |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | Nov. 10-14 | 131 LV | 1 | 52 | 1 | 11 |
| Average | 5 | 48 | 2 | 6 |
\"LV\" stands for \"likely voters\"; \"RV\" stands for \"registered voters.\" If a pollster conducted multiple second-choice polls in the past two months, we looked at only the most recent one.
Source: Polls
The reason for this isn't hard to figure out: Christie has made his entire campaign about the dangers of reelecting Trump. Trump and the two candidates who most closely echo his style and rhetoric are unlikely to appeal to the sort of Republicans drawn to that message. Instead, they favor the other top candidate in the race who has criticized Trumpism*** and who hails from the old guard of the Republican Party. As 538 wrote the other day, this is a frustration for Haley in New Hampshire in particular, where she is \"just\" 13 percentage points behind Trump in the polls. If Christie dropped out and half of his 11 percent support in New Hampshire went to Haley, as suggested by these numbers, it would significantly cut into her deficit. (No, it wouldn't be enough to erase Trump's lead, but if Haley continues to rise in New Hampshire — say, if she gets a boost after a strong performance in Iowa — it could be decisive.)
Meanwhile, DeSantis seems to have one foot in each lane. Nationally, most of his supporters said their second choice was Trump, but a significant minority in each poll said it was Haley. But in polls of Iowa, it's the reverse: A plurality of DeSantis's supporters said that Haley was their second choice, while a big chunk still said Trump was.
Polls conducted since Nov. 5, 2023, of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s supporters’ second choices in the 2024 Republican presidential primary
| National | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | Haley | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| Hart/POS/NBC News | Nov. 10-14 | 58 LV | 9% | 20% | 14% | 48% |
| YouGov/Georgetown/University of Pennsylvania | Nov. 17-27 | 56 LV | 7 | 30 | 11 | 39 |
| NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ | Nov. 26-27 | 98 RV | 5 | 28 | 11 | 43 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | Dec. 7-10 | 44 LV | 2 | 30 | 14 | 48 |
| Suffolk/USA Today | Dec. 26-29 | 33 LV | 3 | 18 | 9 | 67 |
| YouGov/The Economist | Dec. 24-26, Dec. 31-Jan. 2 | 144 RV | 4 | 34 | 9 | 42 |
| Average | 5 | 27 | 11 | 48 | ||
| Iowa | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | Haley | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| Civiqs/Iowa State University | Dec. 8-13 | 75 LV | 4% | 45% | 12% | 31% |
| Emerson College | Dec. 15-17 | 61 LV | 6 | 44 | 14 | 27 |
| Beacon/Shaw/Fox Business | Dec. 14-18 | 145 LV | 2 | 39 | 17 | 30 |
| Average | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | ||
| New Hampshire | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | Haley | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| Emerson/WHDH-TV | Nov. 10-13 | 33 LV | 0% | 40% | 20% | 18% |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | Nov. 10-14 | 84 LV | 2 | 24 | 13 | 51 |
| Average | 1 | 32 | 17 | 35 |
“LV” stands for “likely voters”; “RV” stands for “registered voters.” If a pollster conducted multiple second-choice polls in the past two months, we looked at only the most recent one, except in the case of YouGov/The Economist, which aggregated its two most recent surveys together for us.
Source: Polls
This is probably simply because different voters have different reasons for supporting DeSantis. Some might like the strongly conservative stance he has taken on social issues as governor of Florida; in DeSantis's absence, those voters might default to his fellow culture warrior Trump. But some DeSantis supporters are undoubtedly supporting him because they want to move on from Trump, and it makes sense that their second choice is Haley.
Frustratingly, it's not clear who DeSantis supporters in New Hampshire would flock to if DeSantis were to drop out after Iowa. According to the most recent Emerson College/WHDH-TV poll, it would be Haley — but according to a University of New Hampshire/CNN poll taken around the same time, it would be Trump. And both polls are almost two months out at this point, so really we're flying blind.
Considering that she is currently polling better than she ever has, Haley's withdrawal from the race feels further away than Christie's, Ramaswamy's or DeSantis's, but let's take a look at her supporters' second choices as well. Unsurprisingly, their top alternative is either Christie or DeSantis, depending on the poll. Relatively few Haley supporters would switch to Trump.
Polls conducted since Nov. 5, 2023, of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's supporters' second choices in the 2024 Republican presidential primary
| National | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | DeSantis | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| YouGov/Georgetown/University of Pennsylvania | Nov. 17-27 | 41 LV | 22% | 29% | 2% | 10% |
| NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ | Nov. 26-27 | 93 RV | 14 | 36 | 11 | 15 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | Dec. 7-10 | 27 LV | 15 | 41 | 11 | 15 |
| Suffolk/USA Today | Dec. 26-29 | 41 LV | 41 | 32 | 0 | 17 |
| YouGov/The Economist | Dec. 24-26, Dec. 31-Jan. 2 | 90 RV | 11 | 50 | 6 | 25 |
| Average | 21 | 38 | 6 | 16 | ||
| Iowa | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | DeSantis | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| Civiqs/Iowa State University | Dec. 8-13 | 66 LV | 35% | 36% | 1% | 15% |
| Emerson College | Dec. 15-17 | 73 LV | 18 | 46 | 17 | 8 |
| Beacon/Shaw/Fox Business | Dec. 14-18 | 129 LV | 21 | 43 | 6 | 10 |
| Average | 25 | 42 | 8 | 11 | ||
| New Hampshire | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | DeSantis | Ramaswamy | Trump |
| Emerson/WHDH-TV | Nov. 10-13 | 82 LV | 42% | 24% | 5% | 12% |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | Nov. 10-14 | 194 LV | 27 | 16 | 2 | 8 |
| Average | 35 | 20 | 4 | 10 |
\"LV\" stands for \"likely voters\"; \"RV\" stands for \"registered voters.\" If a pollster conducted multiple second-choice polls in the past two months, we looked at only the most recent one, except in the case of YouGov/The Economist, which aggregated its two most recent surveys together for us.
Source: Polls
Finally, let's entertain the very unlikely scenario in which Trump drops out. Obviously, it would throw the primary into chaos to have more than half of voters suddenly up for grabs, but the candidate best positioned to benefit seems like it would be DeSantis. On average, 43 percent of Trump supporters nationally identified him as their second choice.
Polls conducted since Nov. 5, 2023, of former President Donald Trump's supporters' second choices in the 2024 Republican presidential primary
| National | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | DeSantis | Haley | Ramaswamy |
| Hart/POS/NBC News | Nov. 10-14 | 183 LV | 2% | 49% | 16% | 16% |
| YouGov/Georgetown/University of Pennsylvania | Nov. 17-27 | 297 LV | 1 | 40 | 12 | 16 |
| NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ | Nov. 26-27 | 432 RV | 1 | 46 | 12 | 19 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | Dec. 7-10 | 333 LV | 2 | 40 | 12 | 23 |
| Beacon/Shaw/Fox News | Dec. 10-13 | 278 LV | 8 | 50 | 14 | 20 |
| Suffolk/USA Today | Dec. 26-29 | 202 LV | 3 | 38 | 15 | 20 |
| YouGov/The Economist | Dec. 24-26, Dec. 31-Jan. 2 | 670 RV | 1 | 43 | 15 | 20 |
| Morning Consult | Dec. 30-Jan. 1 | LV | — | 40 | 12 | 24 |
| Average | 3 | 43 | 14 | 20 | ||
| Iowa | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | DeSantis | Haley | Ramaswamy |
| Civiqs/Iowa State University | Dec. 8-13 | 238 LV | 0% | 27% | 15% | 27% |
| Emerson College | Dec. 15-17 | 209 LV | 4 | 25 | 15 | 32 |
| Beacon/Shaw/Fox Business | Dec. 14-18 | 420 LV | 1 | 30 | 11 | 30 |
| Average | 2 | 27 | 14 | 30 | ||
| New Hampshire | ||||||
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Christie | DeSantis | Haley | Ramaswamy |
| Emerson/WHDH-TV | Nov. 10-13 | 226 LV | 1% | 27% | 16% | 23% |
| Monmouth/The Washington Post | Nov. 9-14 | 249 LV | 0 | 31 | 17 | 21 |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | Nov. 10-14 | 398 LV | 1 | 28 | 9 | 30 |
| Average | 1 | 29 | 14 | 25 |
\"LV\" stands for \"likely voters\"; \"RV\" stands for \"registered voters.\" If a pollster conducted multiple second-choice polls in the past two months, we looked at only the most recent one, except in the case of YouGov/The Economist, which aggregated its two most recent surveys together for us.
Source: Polls
That said, in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump's supporters would split roughly evenly between DeSantis and Ramaswamy, raising the possibility that Ramaswamy could score an early-state win that might propel his campaign forward nationally. And a not-insignificant share of Trump supporters opt for Haley as their second choice, so she wouldn't be doomed in this scenario either.
All that said, take these numbers with a grain of salt. Second-choice polling often isn't as helpful as we want it to be: Voters' second choices are subject to a lot of change over the course of a campaign — even more than their first choices — and can be swayed by things like the candidate endorsing someone else on their way out of the race. And again, for all the candidates above except Trump, the sample sizes on these crosstabs are so small that they have very wide margins of error.
I recommend taking generalities away from this article (\"Ramaswamy's voters will mostly flow to Trump\") rather than specifics (\"43 percent of DeSantis's voters in Iowa would go to Haley if he drops out\"). But those generalities can still be useful for predicting where the primary will go next if a candidate drops out — and over the next couple months, that will probably happen multiple times.
Cooper Burton contributed research.
*All numbers in this article are as of 10 a.m. Eastern.
**If a pollster conducted multiple second-choice polls in the past two months, we looked at only the most recent one, except in the case of YouGov/The Economist, which was kind enough to aggregate its two most recent surveys together in order to give us a larger sample size. We used only second-choice polls that released or shared with us full crosstabs by first-choice candidate.
***DeSantis has criticized Trump personally but hasn't really objected to the populist direction he has taken the Republican Party. And while former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has criticized Trumpism, he has been a nonfactor in the race.
","canonicalUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538/stands-gain-desantis-drops-haley-christie/story?id=106101489","legacySlug":"/news/story/stands-gain-desantis-drops-haley-christie-106101489","noIndexNoFollow":false},"publishTime":"15:55","publishDate":"01-05-2024","updatedTime":"16:23","updatedDate":"01-05-2024","socialImage":{"alt":"538 aggregated all the national, Iowa and New Hampshire polls it could find from the past two months that asked Republican voters who their second choice for president is.","credit":"AP Photo / Charlie Neibergall, Getty Images / Jim Watson, Justin Sullivan, Scott Olson","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/SecondChoiceCandidates_v02_DG_1704399617741_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg","width":992,"height":558},"datePublished":"1/5/2024 15:55:34 GMT","video":{"live":false,"id":106101489,"headline":"Who stands to gain if DeSantis drops out?","mediaAssetTitle":"SECOND CHOICES","description":"We take a look at Republican voters' second choices in the primary.","duration":"6:26","posterImg":{"url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","width":608,"height":342},"video":{"feed":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/01/240102_abcnl_11a_panel_iowa_1110_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"},"playlist":["132488083","132306053","132266872"]},"relatedItems":[{"contentType":"video","date":"April 29, 2026","headline":"Grand jury indicts former FBI director over Instagram post","section":"News","slug":"/video/132488083","id":"132488083","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Grand jury indicts former FBI director over Instagram post","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Grand jury indicts former FBI director over Instagram post","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 23, 2026","headline":"Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","section":"News","slug":"/video/132306053","id":"132306053","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 22, 2026","headline":"Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","section":"News","slug":"/video/132266872","id":"132266872","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}}],"relatedContentSection":"news","schemaContent":{"name":"Who stands to gain if DeSantis drops out?","description":"We take a look at Republican voters' second choices in the primary.","duration":"6:26","uploadDate":"01-05-2024","publication":"01-05-2024","images":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","url":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/01/240102_abcnl_11a_panel_iowa_1110_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","contentUrl":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/01/240102_abcnl_11a_panel_iowa_1110_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","link":"https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/stands-gain-desantis-drops-haley-christie-106101489"}},"playlist":[{"id":"132569874","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132567885","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132510121","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132473181","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132497933","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132281378","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132283010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132273278","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132231169","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132206748","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132200241","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054443","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054798","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132033010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131912713","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131830583","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131834976","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554765","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554815","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131543053","contentType":"story","section":"news"}],"kvps":{"pgtyp":"article","lang":"en","sp":"goodmorningamerica","programmatic":"true","bundleId":"com.abcnews"}},"analytics":{"accountID":"wdgnewwdgnewgmaweb","ns":"gma","pageName":"gma:news:video","pageType":"video","globalSpecVersion":"v1.08","siteDifferentiator":"gma:site","tagID":"g_page01","userABCookie":"0","section":"news","title":"Who stands to gain if DeSantis drops out?","pubTime":"10:55","pubDate":"01-05-2024","modTime":"11:23","modDate":"01-05-2024","taxonomyTags":"none","id":106101489,"editorialOtherSubjects":"","wordCount":"none","columns":"none","authors":"","authorsUnit":"none","authorsBureau":"none","subBrand":"Good Morning America","provider":"Good Morning America","videoName":"Who stands to gain if DeSantis drops out?","mediaAssetTitle":"SECOND CHOICES","videoId":106101489,"mediaOnPage":"video","legacySlug":"/news/story/stands-gain-desantis-drops-haley-christie-106101489"},"taboola":{}},"request":{"headers":{},"httpVersion":"1.1","method":"GET","url":"/video/106101489","vary":{"host":"www.goodmorningamerica.com","cached":true,"path":"/video/106101489","forwarded-proto":"https","device":"desktop","userab":"0"}},"viewport":{"width":1260,"height":0},"user":{}};