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It was a similar story in New Hampshire, where an average of 39 percent of Ramaswamy voters said Trump was their second choice. (A recent Emerson College/WHDH-TV poll was a notable outlier, showing Trump in third place among Ramaswamy supporters. However, all of these polling crosstabs have very small sample sizes, so wonky individual results aren't too surprising.) And in New Hampshire, even a little bit of extra support could make a difference for Trump. According to our New Hampshire polling average, Trump is just 13 percentage points ahead of Haley in the Granite State, and all those polls were conducted before former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the race — a development that will probably help Haley.

\"PHOTO:
538 Photo Illustration
PHOTO: 538's polling average of the 2024 Republican presidential primary race in New Hampshire.
>

If you simply give Trump 39 percent of Ramaswamy's 5 percent support in New Hampshire, you could expect Trump to rise about 2 points in the state as a result of Ramaswamy's withdrawal. And that's before factoring in the impact of Ramaswamy's endorsement of Trump, which could convince other ex-Ramaswamy supporters to opt for Trump too. In a world where Trump wins New Hampshire by only a couple points, Ramaswamy's supporters may be the difference-maker.

Of course, Trump may not need the help. He's coming off a huge Iowa win that could grant him momentum all on its own. Meanwhile, Haley's third-place finish isn't exactly rocket fuel for her campaign. All in all, Monday night's developments were good for Trump's chances of winning New Hampshire — which is big because it currently looks like his weakest state. If he wins there, there may be nothing left to stop him from winning every single primary of the 2024 cycle.

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