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True, that model undershot Haley’s performance in New Hampshire by about 10 percentage points, but even if you give her a 10-point boost everywhere else, it doesn’t put her ahead of Trump. Simply put, if Haley couldn’t win in New Hampshire, she will have trouble winning anywhere — including her home state of South Carolina, where she has staked her campaign despite trailing Trump by over 30 points in the polls. And obviously, you can’t win a presidential nomination without winning a single state.

Of course, we can never rule out a dramatic twist in the race, caused by something like a health scare or Trump’s legal issues. But at this point, it would take something that dramatic to cost Trump the nomination — because if nothing changes, the results so far indicate that he will win every primary contest and virtually every delegate that is up for grabs.

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