© 2026 ABC News

But the 2024 primary is unlike anything we’ve seen in recent history, with a one-term, former president running far ahead of the competition. In Iowa, Trump led the second-place candidate by 30 points, a record for the first-in-the-nation caucus, and Trump has already consolidated two-thirds of the Republican electorate in national polling. Trump’s toughest state in the primary could end up being New Hampshire, but that’s only because the state’s GOP electorate is no longer representative of the Republican electorate at large.

New Hampshire has a high population of college-educated residents, a demographic that’s been fleeing the Republican Party for decades. Those who remain in the party still tend to favor Trump — after all, being a Trump supporter is becoming a necessity in the Republican Party these days. However, most of Trump’s support comes from white, working-class voters who don’t have a college degree.

College-educated voters who remain in the Republican Party — as well as those who have left and now are registered as independents — are key to Haley’s chances of pulling off a victory in New Hampshire. While college-educated voters nationally remain more likely to support Trump than Haley, Haley recently matched Trump among college-educated voters in New Hampshire, according to a 538 analysis of polling.

New Hampshire ranks eighth in the country in its share of adults over age 25 with a college degree, according to the latest Census data. Most of the other states that rank toward the top of that list lean heavily toward Democrats, but New Hampshire falls in the middle of the ideological spectrum, according to Inside Elections’s Baseline — a measure of how much of the vote a conventional Republican or Democrat could expect to win in specific states and congressional districts. In New Hampshire, Democrats’ Baseline advantage is just 2 points, meaning a generic Democrat would likely win the state by 2 points. Virginia is the only other state in the top 10 by educational attainment that is arguably a swing state.

New Hampshire is the purplest highly educated state

The 10 states with the highest share of adults age 25 or older with a bachelor’s degree and their partisanship, according to Inside Elections’s Baseline statistic

State Share with degree Baseline
Massachusetts 46.6% D+30.8
Colorado 45.9 D+9.3
Vermont 44.2 D+23.5
Maryland 43.8 D+29.6
New Jersey 43.5 D+13.2
Virginia 42.2 D+5.5
Connecticut 41.9 D+15.0
New Hampshire 41.3 D+2.1
New York 40.0 D+22.5
Rhode Island 39.6 D+22.4

Sources: American Community Survey, Inside Elections

So if Haley’s best chance of bolstering her support is to bring in as many college-educated voters as possible, New Hampshire is fertile ground. New Hampshire is home to more independent voters with a college degree than most states in the country. According to a 538 analysis of data from the Cooperative Election Study, 21 percent of voters in New Hampshire’s 2020 general election identified with neither political party and also had a college degree, more than all but four other states.

But after New Hampshire’s primary, Haley’s task becomes significantly more difficult. Nationally, college-educated voters are becoming a slimmer and slimmer part of the Republican Party. And of the 10 states and territories that vote before Super Tuesday on March 5, New Hampshire has the highest share of college-educated voters, besides the District of Columbia — although there are a few states with higher shares that vote on Super Tuesday itself.

New Hampshire has more college grads than other early states

Share of adults age 25 or older with a bachelor’s degree in the states that hold their Republican primary contest on or before Super Tuesday

State Date Election type Share of college-educated adults
Iowa Jan. 15 Caucus 32%
New Hampshire Jan. 23 Primary 41
Nevada Feb. 8 Caucus 27
South Carolina Feb. 24 Primary 33
Michigan Feb. 27 Primary 32
Idaho March 2 Caucus 32
Missouri March 2 Caucus 32
District of Columbia March 1-3 Primary 65
North Dakota March 4 Caucus 32
Alabama March 5 Primary 29
Alaska March 5 Primary 31
Arkansas March 5 Primary 25
California March 5 Primary 37
Colorado March 5 Primary 46
Maine March 5 Primary 36
Massachusetts March 5 Primary 47
Minnesota March 5 Primary 39
North Carolina March 5 Primary 36
Oklahoma March 5 Primary 29
Tennessee March 5 Primary 31
Texas March 5 Primary 34
Utah March 5 Primary 38
Vermont March 5 Primary 44
Virginia March 5 Primary 42

American Community Survey 1-year estimates are unavailable for the Virgin Islands, which holds its caucus Feb. 8.

Source: American Community Survey

All that’s to say that, if Haley is relying on college-educated Republicans, New Hampshire is likely one of her strongest states. But it’s a pretty low bar, with Trump’s grasp on the Republican Party as strong as ever. And remember that college-educated voters outside of New Hampshire are still more likely to support Trump than Haley. So even if Haley wins the New Hampshire primary — or places a strong second — we’re unlikely to see Trump’s chances of actually winning the nomination shrink.

Mary Radcliffe and Holly Fuong contributed research.

CORRECTION (Jan. 22, 2024, 6:00 p.m.): A previous version of this article stated that nine states and territories vote before Super Tuesday on March 5. The article has been updated to include the District of Columbia, which votes March 1-3.

Footnotes

*All numbers are as of Jan. 22 at 5 p.m. Eastern.

","canonicalUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538/haley-win-new-hampshire/story?id=106574651","legacySlug":"/news/story/haley-win-new-hampshire-106574651","noIndexNoFollow":false},"publishTime":"22:24","publishDate":"01-22-2024","updatedTime":"23:29","updatedDate":"01-22-2024","socialImage":{"alt":"Donald Trump and Nikki Haley face off in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Jan. 23.","credit":"ABC News Photo Illustration, Getty Images - Chip Somodevilla, Joe Raedle","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/538_NewHampshirePrimary_V03_GV_1705959037755_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg","width":992,"height":558},"datePublished":"1/22/2024 22:24:00 GMT","video":{"live":false,"id":106574651,"headline":"Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what?","mediaAssetTitle":"NH-PREVIEW","description":"The Granite State's demographics make it unique from other early-voting states.","duration":"3:14","posterImg":{"url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","width":608,"height":342},"video":{"feed":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/01/240119_538_NHVoters1_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"},"playlist":["132266872","132055565","131830882"]},"relatedItems":[{"contentType":"video","date":"April 22, 2026","headline":"Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","section":"News","slug":"/video/132266872","id":"132266872","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 15, 2026","headline":"American influencer found dead in Tanzania","section":"News","slug":"/video/132055565","id":"132055565","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: American influencer found dead in Tanzania","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: American influencer found dead in Tanzania","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 8, 2026","headline":"Ceasefire analysis, unanswered questions ahead","section":"News","slug":"/video/131830882","id":"131830882","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Ceasefire analysis, unanswered questions ahead","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Ceasefire analysis, unanswered questions ahead","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}}],"relatedContentSection":"news","schemaContent":{"name":"Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what?","description":"The Granite State's demographics make it unique from other early-voting states.","duration":"3:14","uploadDate":"01-22-2024","publication":"01-22-2024","images":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","url":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/01/240119_538_NHVoters1_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","contentUrl":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/01/240119_538_NHVoters1_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","link":"https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/haley-win-new-hampshire-106574651"}},"playlist":[{"id":"132283010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132273278","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132231169","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132206748","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132200241","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054443","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054798","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132033010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131912713","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131830583","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131834976","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554765","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554815","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131543053","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131432442","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131121474","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131247079","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131228784","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131178806","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131142257","contentType":"story","section":"news"}],"kvps":{"pgtyp":"article","lang":"en","sp":"goodmorningamerica","programmatic":"true","bundleId":"com.abcnews"}},"analytics":{"accountID":"wdgnewwdgnewgmaweb","ns":"gma","pageName":"gma:news:video","pageType":"video","globalSpecVersion":"v1.08","siteDifferentiator":"gma:site","tagID":"g_page01","userABCookie":"0","section":"news","title":"Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what?","pubTime":"17:24","pubDate":"01-22-2024","modTime":"18:29","modDate":"01-22-2024","taxonomyTags":"none","id":106574651,"editorialOtherSubjects":"","wordCount":"none","columns":"none","authors":"","authorsUnit":"none","authorsBureau":"none","subBrand":"Good Morning America","provider":"Good Morning America","videoName":"Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what?","mediaAssetTitle":"NH-PREVIEW","videoId":106574651,"mediaOnPage":"video","legacySlug":"/news/story/haley-win-new-hampshire-106574651"},"taboola":{}},"request":{"headers":{},"httpVersion":"1.1","method":"GET","url":"/video/106574651","vary":{"host":"www.goodmorningamerica.com","cached":true,"path":"/video/106574651","forwarded-proto":"https","device":"desktop","userab":"0"}},"viewport":{"width":1260,"height":0},"user":{}};