1:30
- ABC News
- Taylor Swift
- February 2, 2024
Could Taylor Swift sway the 2024 election?
Right-wing conspiracies theories claim Swift is part of a plot to help Biden.
1:30
The Biden campaign would, of course, like her endorsement for 2024 -- but the White House press secretary laughed off a question from CNN’s John Berman about if Biden had plans to see Swift on tour.
A Biden campaign spokesman declined to comment on the record for this story, but the campaign expects its focus on big-name surrogates to ramp up in earnest closer to Election Day.
Celebrity endorsements typically don't have much of an impact when it comes to changing minds, Dean Lacy, professor of government at Dartmouth College, told ABC News.
\"Believe it or not, most people's political opinions predate their celebrity affections,\" Lacy said. \"And so we don't see a lot of celebrities who are swaying people to cross from Democratic to Republican or the reverse.\"
Still, Swift can tell her fans to get out and vote -- and maybe make a key difference -- in an expected close election, said Jana Morgan, a professor of political science at the University of Tennessee and visiting fellow at Notre Dame's Kellogg Institute for International Studies.
\"We know that celebrities can kind of influence their supporters to engage in the political sphere in a way that maybe they wouldn't otherwise or to mobilize people who are maybe not that into politics,\" Morgan said. \"But when the person that they're a big fan of says something about paying attention to politics, they might get engaged.\"
Swift's endorsement hasn't always translated into success. The pop star backed Phil Bredesen, the Democrat running for Senate in Tennessee in 2018, but he lost to Republican incumbent Marsha Blackburn.
Morgan attributes that more to Tennessee's ruby red status than to any limits of Swift's sway.
Celebrity endorsements have moved the needle in the past. For example, Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of then-candidate Barack Obama in 2008 by some estimates brought him as many as one million votes in the primaries and caucuses.
![\"PHOTO:](\"http://a.abcnews.com/images/Politics/oprah-obama-07-gty-thg-240201_1706799828162_hpEmbed_4x3_384.jpg\")
\"There's some evidence that her support of him did sway people to participate in the primaries more and, in some instances, made them more likely to vote for Obama,\" Morgan said. \"So, to the extent that Taylor Swift might be willing to go out and put in a good word for Biden, I think it wouldn't hurt the Biden campaign probably to engage with her.\"
Lacy said she \"is in the same category as Oprah Winfrey was\" at that time. Swift, Lacy speculated, is even more popular now than she was when she endorsed Biden in 2020, given her ongoing tour and ability to pop up before millions in unexpected spaces -- such as NFL playoff games.
\"It's clear that she's also having an effect on football, and a lot of people are [now] Chiefs fans,\" Lacy said. \"I have three daughters who are Swifties and we're going to be pulling for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, even though we used to live [near] San Francisco,\" where the 49ers -- their opponent -- are based.
Taylor Swift's friendship bracelet-clad fanbase includes many who will be heading to the polls for the first time -- a key demographic the presidential candidates will work to galvanize in 2024, experts said.
Biden and Trump -- the likely 2024 matchup -- competed for the youth vote in 2020. Voters under the age of 30 may have helped put President Joe Biden over the top in 2020, and assisted Democrats in broadly overperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms.
![\"PHOTO:](\"http://a.abcnews.com/images/Entertainment/taylor-swift-fan-bracelets-gty-thg-240201_1706798089628_hpEmbed_3x2_384.jpg\")
A Swift endorsement could generate first-time voters this November, Morgan said.
\"Younger people who haven't gotten into that habit yet, you know, need maybe a little extra incentive, extra reason and they can form patterns actually early in their voting history that can have longer term implications in terms of their likelihood to vote and turnout,\" she said.
\"So, in a sense, because of the sort of way in which Taylor Swift's fan base is constructed, it's likely that there are going to be a good number of first-time voters who are big Swifties. And so that could influence their decision to turn out and vote if Taylor is really saying, 'Hey, vote.'\"
Swift can drive young voters to the polls in a way Biden can't, Lacy said.
\"Biden is in his 80s -- he may not be motivating young women to get out to vote. And this could be enough to convince them that they should care,\" he said.
\"Her endorsement could move people from non-voters to voters,\" he said. \"… This is an election that's likely to be decided again by a close vote and a few swing states. There could be enough in a few swing states to make a difference.\"
Voters of all ages appear to like Swift -- maybe more than other politicians. An NBC News national poll conducted in November 2023 found that 40% of registered voters said they have a positive view of Swift -- with 16% of respondents holding a negative opinion.
Swift had the highest net favorability rating compared to the other figures and groups tested in the poll, which included Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Swift had higher favorability with Democrats than Republicans, according to the poll. Fifty-three percent of Democrats said they view Swift positively compared to the 28% of Republicans who said they view her positively.
While influential right-wing voices are spreading unfounded conspiracy theories, many Swifties might be echoing her lyrics, \"Why you gotta be so mean?\"
The allegations have been further fueled by Kelce, as the face of a Pfizer advertising campaign promoting COVID-19 vaccinations, being branded by critics as \"Mr. Pfizer.\"
Swift, who hasn't publicly commented on the allegations, didn't respond to an ABC News request for comment.
![\"PHOTO:](\"http://a.abcnews.com/images/US/taylor-swift-gty-jt-231011_1697072428629_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg\")
And it's unlikely Swift would make an endorsement during the Super Bowl, Morgan said.
\"I think that using a really public platform like that to make an announcement certainly gets a lot of attention,\" Morgan said. \"I do wonder if the some backlash might be greater if she were to use that type of platform that people maybe don't think of as a political space.\"
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley shared her thoughts on the topic with CNN's Jake Tapper on Thursday, saying she doesn't \"know what the obsession is\" with the Super Bowl conspiracies.
\"Taylor Swift is allowed to have a boyfriend. Taylor Swift is a good artist. I have taken my daughter to Taylor Swift concerts before. To have a conspiracy theory of all of this is bizarre,\" Haley said. \"Nobody knows who she's going to endorse, but I can't believe that that's overtaken our national politics.\"
Haley said there are more pressing problems in America than \"Miss Americana.\"
\"The last thing I really think we need to be worried about is who Taylor Swift is dating and what conspiracy theory is going to have her endorsing a person for president,\" she said.
ABC News' Adam Carlson contributed to this report.
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