© 2026 ABC News

Most vice-presidential candidates this century had numbers that looked like Walz's: Slightly more Americans liked them than disliked them, but public opinion on them was pretty divided (probably reflecting simple partisanship). An exception was former Sen. John Edwards in 2004, who went into Election Day with an excellent +21-point average net favorability rating (48 percent favorable, 26 percent unfavorable). Before 2024, the lowest net favorability rating among the candidates we looked at belonged to Sen. Tim Kaine in 2016, who was 4 points underwater on Election Day.

It may surprise some folks that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — who is usually remembered as the worst VP pick in modern times — had \"only\" a -2-point net favorability rating by the end of the 2008 campaign. But people forget that she actually started off as an energizing and popular pick. On Sept. 10, 2008, one week after her well-received acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, her net favorability rating was +21 points (47 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable).

But from that moment on, the more Americans learned about Palin, the more they disliked her. Her poor answers to interview questions created a perception that she was unprepared for the presidency, and an ethics scandal back home in Alaska tarnished her image as a reformer. By Election Day, her unfavorable rating had shot up 20 points (to 45 percent), while her favorable rating was down 3 points (to 44 percent).

Vance has a long way to go before he loses 23 points' worth of net favorability, so I don't think we can say that his vice-presidential campaign has gone as badly as Palin's. But so far, at least, it has followed a similar downward trajectory, making Palin's candidacy the best recent historical comparison to Vance's.

Now, we shouldn't assume that Vance will keep getting more unpopular the way Palin did. In fact, if I had to guess, I would say that his net favorability rating will eventually level off (in fact, if you look at the chart, it may already be doing so). That's because we live in a polarized time, and it's hard for politicians to get too popular or too unpopular because each party has a sizable base that will stay loyal no matter what. For example, even in a recent YouGov/The Economist poll that gave Vance a -11-point net favorability overall, his net favorability rating among Republicans was +64 points.

Palin also just had more room to fall, starting at such lofty heights. But that's probably cold comfort for Vance — starting lower means he is also more unpopular, in absolute terms, than Palin ever was. There are still more than two months for Vance to improve his standing, but he is in danger of going into Election Day as one of the least, if not the single least, popular vice-presidential candidates this century.

In what's likely a tacit acknowledgment of his image problems, Vance has recently argued that vice-presidential candidates don't really matter in elections. And that is typically true — voters vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom. But VP picks can, on occasion, damage a campaign when they are bad enough; one study found that Palin cost Republicans 1.6 points of vote share in 2008.

Of course, that was in a year when Republicans' presidential candidate was popular; this year, Trump is viewed nearly as unfavorably as Vance. Still, Vance is unpopular enough that it's at least possible he could cost Trump some votes, and that should make Republicans nervous.

G. Elliott Morris contributed research.

Footnotes

*This was the earliest that we had enough national polls of Vance's favorability to generate a polling average for it.

**All but then-Sen. Joe Biden in 2008, for whom we didn't have data.

","canonicalUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538/tim-walz-popular-jd-vance/story?id=112841577","legacySlug":"/news/story/tim-walz-popular-jd-vance-112841577","noIndexNoFollow":false},"publishTime":"18:18","publishDate":"08-15-2024","updatedTime":"10:21","updatedDate":"08-16-2024","socialImage":{"alt":"Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance reacts to the cheering crowd during a campaign event in Reno, Nev., July 30, 2024.","credit":"Jae C. Hong/AP","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/Politics/Vance-2-ap-er-240731_1722456123396_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg","width":992,"height":558},"datePublished":"8/15/2024 18:18:00 GMT","video":{"live":false,"id":112841577,"headline":"JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin","mediaAssetTitle":"VANCE-POLLS.0815","description":"Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.","duration":"17:15","posterImg":{"url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","width":608,"height":342},"video":{"feed":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/08/240811_tw_vance_1001_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"},"playlist":["134403231","133741861","133707237"]},"relatedItems":[{"contentType":"video","date":"July 2, 2026","headline":"Track and timing of the life-threatening heat wave","section":"News","slug":"/video/134403231","id":"134403231","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Track and timing of the life-threatening heat wave","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Track and timing of the life-threatening heat wave","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260702_gma_champion_heat1_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"June 10, 2026","headline":"NASA unveils Artemis III crew","section":"News","slug":"/video/133741861","id":"133741861","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: NASA unveils Artemis III crew","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: NASA unveils Artemis III crew","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260610_gma_benitez_artemis_715_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"June 9, 2026","headline":"Flash flood threat as dangerous weather on the move","section":"News","slug":"/video/133707237","id":"133707237","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Flash flood threat as dangerous weather on the move","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Flash flood threat as dangerous weather on the move","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260609_gma_zee_weather1_707_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}}],"relatedContentSection":"news","schemaContent":{"name":"JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin","description":"Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.","duration":"17:15","uploadDate":"08-15-2024","publication":"08-15-2024","images":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","url":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/08/240811_tw_vance_1001_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","contentUrl":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/08/240811_tw_vance_1001_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","link":"https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/tim-walz-popular-jd-vance-112841577"}},"playlist":[{"id":"134358132","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134353508","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134335187","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134334942","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134302445","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134246001","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134202757","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134211156","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134179882","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134130187","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134161969","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134164484","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134145709","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134134667","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134099631","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134041491","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"134033809","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"78356537","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"133929295","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"133958398","contentType":"story","section":"news"}],"kvps":{"pgtyp":"article","lang":"en","sp":"goodmorningamerica","programmatic":"true","bundleId":"com.abcnews"}},"analytics":{"accountID":"wdgnewwdgnewgmaweb","ns":"gma","pageName":"gma:news:video","pageType":"video","globalSpecVersion":"v1.08","siteDifferentiator":"gma:site","tagID":"g_page01","userABCookie":"0","section":"news","title":"JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin","pubTime":"14:18","pubDate":"08-15-2024","modTime":"06:21","modDate":"08-16-2024","taxonomyTags":"none","id":112841577,"editorialOtherSubjects":"","wordCount":"none","columns":"none","authors":"","authorsUnit":"none","authorsBureau":"none","subBrand":"Good Morning America","provider":"Good Morning America","videoName":"JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin","mediaAssetTitle":"VANCE-POLLS.0815","videoId":112841577,"mediaOnPage":"video","legacySlug":"/news/story/tim-walz-popular-jd-vance-112841577"},"taboola":{}},"request":{"headers":{},"httpVersion":"1.1","method":"GET","url":"/video/112841577","vary":{"host":"www.goodmorningamerica.com","cached":true,"path":"/video/112841577","forwarded-proto":"https","device":"desktop","userab":"0"}},"viewport":{"width":1260,"height":0},"user":{}};