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This vote splitting and drop-off after the first round could favor Peltola if there are once again multiple right-wing candidates for voters to choose from in November. But Begich has said that if Dahlstrom finishes ahead of him in the primary, he'll drop out of the race, leaving her to take on Peltola. In a state that Trump won by 10 percentage points in 2020, Peltola was always going to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents this November, and the results of this primary could ultimately mean the difference between winning and losing for the congresswoman.

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