© 2026 ABC News

When Kennedy is absent from surveys, support for Harris rises most among Asian, Black and Hispanic voters,** as well as with nonwhite voters without college degrees and young voters. Trump, meanwhile, consolidates support with men, white and rural voters, and voters over 30. That means Trump is best situated to capitalize on Kennedy's endorsement among the groups already friendliest to both of them.

For the most part, however, Kennedy is drawing few votes from either candidate and, once again, the effect of his withdrawal on the race is likely to be small. Harris's margin over Trump changes by less than two percentage points in 16 out of the 18 groups we considered, and by less than one percentage point in more than a third.

In fact, the most notable trend in our demographic-level analysis is a repolarization of solid Democratic and Republican groups; that is, without Kennedy on the ballot, Harris tends to gain among groups that are typically solidly Democratic, while Trump does better with key Republican demographics. But vote intention among the more swingy groups — suburbanites, college-educated nonwhites, and women — changes little.

Exit this way

While running for president, Kennedy was often discussed in terms of whether he would be a spoiler candidate for either Trump or Biden/Harris. This was a distinct possibility: As of Aug. 23 at 6:30 p.m. Eastern, our election forecast for Trump and Harris gives Kennedy a 0-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes, but a 40-in-100 chance of third-party candidates winning more votes in any decisive state than the margin between Harris and Trump in that state. With Kennedy's exit likely to lower those odds, that's a big reason Trump is likely glad to have Kennedy's support, even if he doesn't bring many votes to the table.

When Ross Perot bowed out of the 1992 presidential race (before later reentering it), he said he did not want to send the election to the House of Representatives by siphoning off enough electoral votes to prevent any candidate from reaching an Electoral College majority. And while Kennedy also specified in his announcement Friday that he is withdrawing his name in battleground states where he might prove to be a spoiler, he struck a different (and, to be clear, not very realistic) tune by technically remaining in the race. \"I encourage you to vote for me,\" he said, specifying that his name will appear on the ballot in most states. \"And if enough of you do vote for me, and neither of the major-party candidates win 270 [electoral] votes, which is quite possible … I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contingent election.\"

In order to be eligible to be elected president by the House, however, Kennedy would need to win at least one Electoral College vote from a state's slate of presidential electors. That is likely an overly optimistic forecast (following an overly optimistic campaign). Toward the end of his press conference, Kennedy officially threw his support behind Trump. That may reflect a more prescient prediction of where his future in American politics lies.

Footnotes

*When pollsters released results among different populations, we preferred polls of likely voters over those of registered voters and registered voters over all adults. When a pollster released multiple different multi-candidate matchups, we included the matchup with the largest candidate field when calculating the margin including Kennedy. We included all national polls conducted after July 21 and released by Aug. 22 at 11:59pm.

**Some pollsters include a \"Hispanic\" demographic group in their crosstabs, and others include a \"Latino\" group. We included both categories in the Hispanic/Latino averages.

","canonicalUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538/momentum-rfk-jrs-endorsement-give-trump/story?id=113111150","legacySlug":"/news/story/momentum-rfk-jrs-endorsement-give-trump-113111150","noIndexNoFollow":false},"publishTime":"22:32","publishDate":"08-23-2024","updatedTime":"22:34","updatedDate":"08-23-2024","socialImage":{"alt":"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during the Freedom Fest at the Caesars Forum Conference Center, July 12, 2024, in Las Vegas.","credit":"Daniel Jacobi II/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/robert-f-kennedy-01-gty-jef-240823_1724451070544_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg","width":992,"height":558},"datePublished":"8/23/2024 22:32:08 GMT","video":{"live":false,"id":113111150,"headline":"Will RFK Jr.'s endorsement give Trump momentum?","mediaAssetTitle":"RFK-DROPOUT.0823","description":"Polls show Kennedy's supporters only slightly favor the former president.","duration":"3:01","posterImg":{"url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","width":608,"height":342},"video":{"feed":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/08/240823_abcnl_12p_druke_rfk_1207_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"},"playlist":["132488083","132306053","132266872"]},"relatedItems":[{"contentType":"video","date":"April 29, 2026","headline":"Grand jury indicts former FBI director over Instagram post","section":"News","slug":"/video/132488083","id":"132488083","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Grand jury indicts former FBI director over Instagram post","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Grand jury indicts former FBI director over Instagram post","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260429_gma_thomas_comey2_706_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 23, 2026","headline":"Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","section":"News","slug":"/video/132306053","id":"132306053","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 22, 2026","headline":"Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","section":"News","slug":"/video/132266872","id":"132266872","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}}],"relatedContentSection":"news","schemaContent":{"name":"Will RFK Jr.'s endorsement give Trump momentum?","description":"Polls show Kennedy's supporters only slightly favor the former president.","duration":"3:01","uploadDate":"08-23-2024","publication":"08-23-2024","images":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","url":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/08/240823_abcnl_12p_druke_rfk_1207_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","contentUrl":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/08/240823_abcnl_12p_druke_rfk_1207_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","link":"https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/momentum-rfk-jrs-endorsement-give-trump-113111150"}},"playlist":[{"id":"132473181","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132497933","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132281378","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132283010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132273278","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132231169","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132206748","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132200241","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054443","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054798","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132033010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131912713","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131830583","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131834976","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554765","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554815","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131543053","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131432442","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131121474","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131247079","contentType":"story","section":"news"}],"kvps":{"pgtyp":"article","lang":"en","sp":"goodmorningamerica","programmatic":"true","bundleId":"com.abcnews"}},"analytics":{"accountID":"wdgnewwdgnewgmaweb","ns":"gma","pageName":"gma:news:video","pageType":"video","globalSpecVersion":"v1.08","siteDifferentiator":"gma:site","tagID":"g_page01","userABCookie":"0","section":"news","title":"Will RFK Jr.'s endorsement give Trump momentum?","pubTime":"18:32","pubDate":"08-23-2024","modTime":"18:34","modDate":"08-23-2024","taxonomyTags":"none","id":113111150,"editorialOtherSubjects":"","wordCount":"none","columns":"none","authors":"","authorsUnit":"none","authorsBureau":"none","subBrand":"Good Morning America","provider":"Good Morning America","videoName":"Will RFK Jr.'s endorsement give Trump momentum?","mediaAssetTitle":"RFK-DROPOUT.0823","videoId":113111150,"mediaOnPage":"video","legacySlug":"/news/story/momentum-rfk-jrs-endorsement-give-trump-113111150"},"taboola":{}},"request":{"headers":{},"httpVersion":"1.1","method":"GET","url":"/video/113111150","vary":{"host":"www.goodmorningamerica.com","cached":true,"path":"/video/113111150","forwarded-proto":"https","device":"desktop","userab":"0"}},"viewport":{"width":1260,"height":0},"user":{}};