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As such, Trump's endorsement has become the most coveted name drop in Republican politics. In 2020, facing a challenger, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie went so far as to buy ad time in West Palm Beach hoping to get on Trump's radar (Trump never did pick sides in that race, though Massie was victorious). Even Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance, ran a campaign to win the former president's backing, as did three of his primary competitors, during the 2022 election in Ohio. Vance, of course, ultimately got Trump's endorsement, and it fundamentally shifted the race: Vance had been trailing the two front-runners before the endorsement, but he ended up winning not only the nomination but also the general election.

Brian Jack, a consultant who has worked on Trump's campaign and is now, as the Republican nominee for Georgia's 3rd District, the recipient of his endorsement, said Trump's backing was a game changer for his campaign. Prior to Trump's endorsement, Jack says he was polling around 1 percent in his district. He went on to win a plurality of the vote in the primary, with 47 percent, and win the nomination in the runoff with 63 percent of the vote.

\"The combination of President Trump's endorsement and a well-run campaign with an America First platform is unstoppable in a Republican primary,\" Jack said. \"It is the most powerful endorsement in American politics.\"

By contrast, traditional GOP groups have been ceding more and more power on the endorsement front. In past cycles, for instance, the NRCC would gradually unveil classes of its \"Young Guns\" program: candidates who had met certain fundraising and messaging thresholds and earned the backing of the committee in competitive races. In the 2018 midterms, for instance, the first class was announced more than a year before. For this year's election, not a single candidate was named to the list until July, and 10 of the 26 candidates had already clinched Trump's endorsement (one candidate Trump endorsed less than a week later, the rest were in a race for which Trump had not yet endorsed a candidate). Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee started endorsing primary candidates this cycle for the first time in a decade, but their choices — such as Kari Lake in Arizona — have often been more MAGA-flavored than they might have in the past.

Now, as we've examined here at 538 before, part of Trump's endorsement success can be boiled down to, essentially, padding his record. It's obviously not a risky bet to endorse an unopposed incumbent, and oftentimes Trump endorses candidates who have already garnered a lot of establishment support anyway. But that's partly why it's all the more politically risky for the GOP establishment to have handed over so much of its coronation power to the former president. When Trump does take a gamble, such as when he backed TV host Mehmet Oz for Pennsylvania's 2022 Senate race over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick — who was seen by many in the party as the stronger candidate — it can end in disaster.

But for Trump, there's no downside. The industrialization of his endorsement process has only made him stronger and solidified the grand Trumpification of the GOP. Now, it matters less whether the candidates he backs win or lose. By backing them and having the party fall in line behind them, Trump has already won control of the Republican Party.

Mary Radcliffe contributed research.

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