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In fact, the polls are so (comparatively) good for Harris that the model is actually forecasting a national popular vote that is more Democratic than the current national polling average. Our model calculates an implied national popular vote based on estimated turnout in each state, and today that number is closer to Harris+4.2 than Harris's 2.9-point lead in national polls. This echoes 2012, when state polls looked better for President Barack Obama than national polls did (Obama ended up beating his national polling average over Republican nominee Mitt Romney by more than 3 points).

This difference between the national electorate in the national polls and the one implied by state polls may sound small, but in fact 1.5 points could end up deciding the whole election. The forecasted margin between Harris and Trump is currently equal to or smaller than 1.5 points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — a bloc that is together worth 68 electoral votes.

In the 2020 election, now-President Joe Biden ended up needing to win the national popular vote by at least 3.8 points (assuming a uniform national swing) in order to carry enough states to win 270 electoral votes. This year, thanks to her stronger standing in state polls than in national ones, our forecast thinks Harris needs to win the national popular vote by only about 2.1 points in order to be favored to win. However, that still means the Electoral College will probably help Trump, meaning that it's essential for Harris to maintain her current lead in the northern battleground states especially. That's why our forecast gives Harris a 61-in-100 chance of winning instead of 72-in-100 (her current chances of winning the national popular vote).

Ultimately, though, it is still early days: We have seven weeks left until Election Day, and many major firms have yet to release any post-debate data. We will have to keep watching the data to see how Harris's and Trump's chances change. As history has shown, campaign events can unearth new information, reinforce perceptions of candidates, or deprive underdogs of a last chance to shake up the campaign. That's truer than ever in tightly contested national elections, regardless of higher levels of polarization. 538's polling averages and election forecasting model will continue to update with the latest polls as they are released.

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