5:22
Why the discrepancy with the presidential polling? Well, first, gubernatorial races — while they have become more nationalized in recent years — aren't as beholden to presidential partisanship as Senate and House races are (this is how you've gotten Republican Gov. Phil Scott in deep-blue Vermont). And even as Democrats haven't won a presidential or Senate election in North Carolina since 2008, they have won seven of the last eight gubernatorial elections.
But the more acute reason is that Republicans nominated a poor candidate in Robinson, who has a history of making right-wing and offensive statements. Among other things, he has called homosexuality \"filth;\" defended corporal punishment for children; said women shouldn't be leaders; expressed doubt about the Holocaust; made antisemitic comments about the movie \"Black Panther;\" and said the civil rights movement was bad for Black schools and businesses. And on Thursday, CNN reported that Robinson made racist and salacious comments on a pornography website's message board.
Some Democrats are even hoping that Robinson's unpopularity will rub off on Trump and cause him to lose the state. However, they shouldn't count on it. It's rare that a downballot race has a significant impact on the top of the ticket.
*Based on polls of likely and registered voters only (if a poll included results among both populations, we used likely voters). If a poll included both a head-to-head matchup between Harris and Trump and a version including third parties, we used the head-to-head version. Finally, if a polling organization (defined as a partnership between a pollster and sponsor, or a pollster alone if their work was not sponsored by an outside group) had more than one survey in the relevant time frame, only the most recent version was included. All polls conducted and released between Aug. 19 and 10 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 19 are included.
**We will release an official polling average for this race soon!
","canonicalUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538/democrats-finally-win-north-carolina-2024/story?id=113842324","legacySlug":"/news/story/democrats-finally-win-north-carolina-2024-113842324","noIndexNoFollow":false},"publishTime":"19:45","publishDate":"09-19-2024","updatedTime":"14:15","updatedDate":"09-20-2024","socialImage":{"alt":"538 North Carolina story","credit":"ABC Photo Illustration, Andrew Harnik/ Getty, Mario Tama / Getty","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/Politics/538_North_Carolina_v03_dnl_1726773535292_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg","width":992,"height":558},"datePublished":"9/19/2024 19:45:00 GMT","video":{"live":false,"id":113842324,"headline":"How Democrats could finally win North Carolina","mediaAssetTitle":"NC-POLLA","description":"Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.","duration":"5:22","posterImg":{"url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","width":608,"height":342},"video":{"feed":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/09/240913_DV_WangCooper_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"},"playlist":["132306053","132266872","132055565"]},"relatedItems":[{"contentType":"video","date":"April 23, 2026","headline":"Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","section":"News","slug":"/video/132306053","id":"132306053","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Trump orders Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in Strait of Hormuz","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260423_gma_scott_ceasefire3_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 22, 2026","headline":"Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","section":"News","slug":"/video/132266872","id":"132266872","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Fallout after Fed nominee grilled on Capitol Hill","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260422_gma_schulze_fed3_713_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 15, 2026","headline":"American influencer found dead in Tanzania","section":"News","slug":"/video/132055565","id":"132055565","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: American influencer found dead in Tanzania","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: American influencer found dead in Tanzania","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}}],"relatedContentSection":"news","schemaContent":{"name":"How Democrats could finally win North Carolina","description":"Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.","duration":"5:22","uploadDate":"09-19-2024","publication":"09-19-2024","images":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","url":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/09/240913_DV_WangCooper_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","contentUrl":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2024/09/240913_DV_WangCooper_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","link":"https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/democrats-finally-win-north-carolina-2024-113842324"}},"playlist":[{"id":"132281378","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132283010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132273278","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132231169","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132206748","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132200241","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054443","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054798","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132033010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131912713","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131830583","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131834976","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554765","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554815","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131543053","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131432442","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131121474","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131247079","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131228784","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131178806","contentType":"story","section":"news"}],"kvps":{"pgtyp":"article","lang":"en","sp":"goodmorningamerica","programmatic":"true","bundleId":"com.abcnews"}},"analytics":{"accountID":"wdgnewwdgnewgmaweb","ns":"gma","pageName":"gma:news:video","pageType":"video","globalSpecVersion":"v1.08","siteDifferentiator":"gma:site","tagID":"g_page01","userABCookie":"0","section":"news","title":"How Democrats could finally win North Carolina","pubTime":"15:45","pubDate":"09-19-2024","modTime":"10:15","modDate":"09-20-2024","taxonomyTags":"none","id":113842324,"editorialOtherSubjects":"","wordCount":"none","columns":"none","authors":"","authorsUnit":"none","authorsBureau":"none","subBrand":"Good Morning America","provider":"Good Morning America","videoName":"How Democrats could finally win North Carolina","mediaAssetTitle":"NC-POLLA","videoId":113842324,"mediaOnPage":"video","legacySlug":"/news/story/democrats-finally-win-north-carolina-2024-113842324"},"taboola":{}},"request":{"headers":{},"httpVersion":"1.1","method":"GET","url":"/video/113842324","vary":{"host":"www.goodmorningamerica.com","cached":true,"path":"/video/113842324","forwarded-proto":"https","device":"desktop","userab":"0"}},"viewport":{"width":1260,"height":0},"user":{}};