3:12
But the differences aren't stark, at least in Florida and Georgia. The affected counties voted for Trump by only 5 points in Georgia and 7 points in Florida, so the storms will theoretically hinder Trump and Biden voters there in almost equal measure.
By contrast, in North Carolina, the 25 counties hit by Helene voted for Trump 62 percent to 37 percent. However, they also account for just 17 percent of the votes cast in North Carolina in 2020. So while any storm-related turnout drops here would disproportionately hurt Trump, it wouldn't cost him all that many votes in absolute terms.
This won't happen, but as a thought experiment, let's assume that everyone in North Carolina votes the exact same way in 2024 that they did in 2020, but turnout drops by 5 percent in Helene-hit counties. That would cost Democrats 17,482 votes and Trump 29,181 votes — shrinking Trump's margin by 11,699. That could matter in an extremely close election, which isn't impossible. But in 2020, North Carolina was already pretty close (Trump won it by 1.3 points), but Trump's margin was almost seven times that: 74,483 votes. So North Carolina would have to be within a fraction of a percentage point in order for anyone to make a good case that Helene affected the election (even if turnout does fall in the affected areas, which is not a given).
Of course, it's a problem if even one person is disenfranchised because of these storms, and hopefully all eligible voters who want to cast a ballot are able to. But if Trump loses North Carolina (or Georgia or Florida), it likely won't be because of these natural disasters.
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