In the House, the number of women serving is set to decrease (albeit slightly) for the first time since the 102nd Congress, which began in 1991. Democrats will set a new record for women's representation in the chamber with a total of 94 Democratic women elected to the 119th Congress, up from 93 currently serving (the previous record). But the number of Republican women in Congress will decline from 34 to 31 members, after two cycles of growth. This suggests that Democrats are at least maintaining their gains following a surge in Democratic women's representation in 2018, while Republicans may be losing steam when it comes to electing women, losing some ground after they more than tripled their numbers in the 2020 cycle.

Behind Democratic women's modest gain of one seat, a few incumbent Democratic women in competitive races (those that our forecast rated as \"Toss-up\" or \"Lean\" before the election) came up short: Reps. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado, Susan Wild in Pennsylvania and Mary Peltola in Alaska. But a couple of female Democratic challengers won their races that were projected to be close: Janelle Bynum in Oregon (who flipped this seat from Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer), and Kristen McDonald Rivet in Michigan (a critical hold after Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee's retirement).

For their part, all four Republican women running in these competitive races were incumbents. Two lost (Chavez-DeRemer and California Rep. Michelle Steel) and two won (Reps. Jen Kiggans in Virginia and Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa). No non-incumbent GOP women ran in these races — a change from the party's previous efforts to nominate women in highly competitive districts, which helped fuel the surge of GOP women who won in the 2020 election cycle.

In less competitive races (which make up the vast majority of House contests), the differences between the two parties were even more stark. On the Democratic side, a host of non-incumbent women won in safely blue seats where sitting Democrats had announced their retirement, like Maggie Goodlander in New Hampshire and Laura Friedman and Lateefah Simon in California. But on the Republican side, as we wrote about in September, women were most underrepresented as nominees in safely red seats where they had the best chances of being elected.

That's reflected in the partisan breakdown of the non-incumbent women who will be joining Congress. According to the Center for American Women in Politics, of the 21 women newly elected to Congress, just two are Republican. In fact, our analysis in September found that these two candidates — Julie Fedorchak in North Dakota and Sheri Biggs in South Carolina — were their party's only non-incumbent female nominees in safe Republican races. This year's outcome was the likely result of a primary cycle where Republicans nominated fewer women overall, and hardly any women in races where they were favored or competitive.

Has women's representation stalled out?

After a few cycles of notable progress in expanding women's ranks in both Congress and governorships, the 2024 election represented a plateau. Unless both parties commit to electing more women to Congress and governorships, progress toward gender parity in political representation will remain slow and uneven. But it's particularly clear that a lot would need to change for Republican women to gain back their previous momentum, and the party's stagnation on this front underscores the role partisan dynamics play in limiting gender parity in government.

Republican women continue to face several distinct challenges that Democratic women do not. For one, research from Brigham Young University shows that Republican voters are more likely to penalize candidates — regardless of gender — who present themselves in traditionally feminine ways. This creates a compounded disadvantage for conservative women, who are more likely to campaign in ways that reinforce gender stereotypes. And as we've written about previously, Democratic organizations have made more concerted efforts to promote female candidates, while Republican women often struggle to obtain institutional backing — as was true of some conventionally qualified Republican women who lost to men endorsed by Trump or the NRCC in this year's primaries.

Republicans also have fewer women in on-deck circles, like state legislatures. Following the 2024 cycle, more women than ever will serve in state legislatures, where they'll make up around a third of the seats nationwide. At this level too, Democrats are electing many more women than Republicans (around 1,600 to Republicans' 850, according to ABC News), though Republicans did elect more women this cycle than the last (their previous record was 815). But in today's political environment, this could prove less consequential for women's representation at higher levels. Historically, experience in state legislatures has served as a springboard for higher offices, like Congress. That said, a recent trend of more amateurs (candidates with no previous political experience) running and winning elected office could mean alternative paths to office will be a more fruitful avenue for increasing representation, but whether Republican women will walk those paths with equal ease is an open question.

Footnote

*The all-time record for women serving simultaneously in the Senate was actually set at 26 earlier in the 116th Congress, during the period after Kelly Loeffler (a Republican appointed to fill a vacant seat in Georgia) took office in January 2020 and before fellow appointee Martha McSally (a Republican from Arizona) left office in December 2020 after losing a special election.

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