0:58
- ABC News
- December 4, 2017
What if US agrees to Jerusalem as Israeli capital?
Trump may delay embassy move to Jerusalem but still change U.S. policy.
0:58
\"The odds that Trump will stumble in his Jerusalem gambit are pretty good. That's because the point of the exercise does not seem designed to achieve any real foreign policy goals,\" Miller wrote in an op-ed.
\"The only issue for the mediator is how to protect U.S. interests, image and credibility,\" he argued. \"That's the key.\" The real question, he says, is if this a one-off or part of a broader strategy.
\"Perhaps the administration believes that a statement is less damaging than actually starting the process of opening an embassy,\" Miller said. \"But unless the move is part of some prenegotiated deal with Israel that offers up some significant concession to the Palestinians, it would serve no compelling U.S. national interest.\"
Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk also weighed in, tweeting, \"Don't underestimate Trump's desire to disrupt the status quo on Jerusalem on the theory that out of crisis can come an opportunity. He should beware: Jerusalem is a dangerous place to test a theory.\"
Don’t underestimate Trump’s desire to disrupt the status quo on Jerusalem on the theory that out of crisis can come an opportunity. He should beware: Jerusalem is a dangerous place to test a theory. https://t.co/UPEJI4Mttd
— Martin Indyk (@Martin_Indyk) December 3, 2017
On Sunday, Kushner spoke for the first time publicly about Middle East peace. Addressing a room full of diplomats, policy wonks and former negotiators at the annual Saban Forum, he voiced optimism but never mentioned a future Palestinian state or the words \"two-state solution.\"
\"We do think it's achievable,\" he told the crowd.
Miller, however, puts the odds at achieving the ultimate deal — a conflict-ending accord between Israelis and Palestinians — at \"slim to none.\"
Kushner laid out his broad regional strategy, which includes a more formalized Arab-Israeli agreement based on mutual interests.
\"The regional dynamic plays a big role in what we think the opportunities are,\" he said. \"A lot of these countries look and say they all want the same thing.
\"And they look at the regional threats, and I think that they see Israel, who is traditionally their foe, is a much more natural ally to them than it was 20 years ago,\" Kushner explained, without naming Saudi Arabia or other Arab states.
But before that happens, he said, an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal needs to be inked. \"You've got a lot of people who want to put this together, but you have to overcome this issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order for that to happen.\"
Speaking at the Knesset on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted an \"unprecedented\" shift in the attitude of Arab states toward his country.
During his 30-minute talk, he did not reveal any details of a possible peace plan, and Palestinian sources have denied reports in Israeli and American media that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was served a fully baked plan by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman two weeks ago during a visit to Riyadh.
Israelis consider Jerusalem their country's capital, but Palestinians claim East Jerusalem the capital of their future state. Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem or recognizing a unified Jerusalem as the Israeli capital would not be acceptable to Palestinians or leaders across the Muslim world.
\"To move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem or to recognize the city as the capital of Israel — both are equally dangerous to the future of the peace process and push the region into instability,\" said Nabil Abu Rudeineh, a spokesman for Abbas.
Sunday night, Abbas, a member of the Fatah party in the West Bank, spoke to the Hamas leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniya, and the two agreed that they would not accept any change to U.S. policy on Jerusalem, according to a statement released by Hamas.
The Palestine Liberation Organization also believes changes could be destabilizing for the region.
The move \"will contribute to the further destabilization of the region and will discourage many of those who still believe that a peaceful solution is achievable to end over 50 years of Israeli occupation, 70 years of exile and decades of systematic violations of Palestinian national and human rights,” said Saeb Erekat, the secretary-general of the PLO and a former chief negotiator in the peace talks.
Abbas has made phone calls to other Arab leaders, French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to Palestinian sources, who said many in the region condemned the move, as they did six months ago, before Trump signed the Jerusalem waiver for the first time.
Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi tweeted Sunday night that he spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson about the \"dangerous consequences of recognizing Jerusalem as capital of Israel. Such a decision would trigger anger across #Arab #Muslim worlds, fuel tension and jeopardize peace efforts.\"
Spoke with #US Secretary of State Tillerson on dangerous consequences of recognizing Jerusalem as capital of Israel. Such a decision would trigger anger across #Arab #Muslim worlds, fuel tension & jeopardize peace efforts.
— Ayman Safadi (@AymanHsafadi) December 3, 2017
Arab League leader Abul Gheit told reporters in Cairo on Sunday, \"It is unfortunate that some are insisting on carrying out this step without any regard to the dangers it carries to the stability of the Middle East and the whole world.\"
\"Nothing justifies this act,\" he added. \"It will not serve peace or stability. Instead it will nourish fanaticism and violence.\"
Chris Donovan, Katherine Faulders, Conor Finnegan, Alex Mallin contributed reporting from Washington, and Nasser Atta contributed reporting from Jerusalem.
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