3:29
- ABC News
- Climate Change
- November 5, 2021
'Net-zero' pledges could have net-zero impact
Scientists say we are betting our planet's future on vague commitments.
3:29
Swedish teen activist Thunberg summed up what net-zero pledges mean to her on Twitter as the COP26 conference commenced, writing: \"I am pleased to announce that I’ve decided to go net-zero on swear words and bad language. In the event that I should say something inappropriate I pledge to compensate that by saying something nice.\"
Climate scientist Wolfgang Knorr, a senior researcher at Sweden's University of Lund, has said he now feels remorse over how some of his earlier climate research, built by computer models, was coopted by policymakers and the private sector to contribute to the rise of net-zero pledges.
\"Basically, what happened is the Paris Agreement was signed, but then nobody actually knew what it meant,\" he said. \"And then the scientific community, the IPCC tasked to actually figure out what 1.5 meant in two ways -- what's the difference between climate impacts with 1.5 versus 2 degrees of warming? And the other question is what needs to be done and/or what can we still emit to stay within 1.5 degrees?\"
To solve for the latter, Knorr said he was running integrated assessment computer models that looked at how the economy works and calculating in emissions from industrial activity, the agricultural sector and more to figure out the best pathway to keep the rise in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably within 1.5 degrees Celsius, as outlined in the Paris Agreement.
\"Personally, my job was and has been for most of the time to devise mathematical models,\" he said, adding that in these models, \"the 'net' exists as an abstract idea, but what it means in reality, that didn't actually affect these models at all by the way they were constructed.\"
The models they ran, he said, found \"it's just not possible\" to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius with all of the other variables, and he wrote in his research that in the end, \"any remaining emissions would have to be offset.\"
\"We actually really wrote, then, by some 'artificial means,'\" he added of offsets, but stressed that this was still \"just existing in a computer model and their lines of code.\"
\"By bringing that offsetting on the table, we have basically opened Pandora’s box,\" Knorr says now. \"We should have been really cautious about bring it on the table.\"
\"That 'zero' has sort of disappeared from sight, and it's all about the 'net,'\" he added. \"I think that I might have contributed to this.\"
![\"PHOTO:](\"http://a.abcnews.com/images/Business/arctic-bears-file-zp-jef-211104_1636045843375_hpEmbed_3x2_384.jpg\")
In its most-recent 2021 report, the IPCC simply defines \"net-zero\" as a \"condition in which anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are balanced by anthropogenic CO2 removals over a specified period,\" though details on this \"removals\" process remain sparse.
\"Originally, when I was working on this topic like 10 years ago or more, we were thinking about, 'OK, I mean, maybe a few percent of what we emit, CO2, will have to be offset,' because for example, cement production is very difficult without producing CO2, or certain forms of agriculture might be still be emitting greenhouse gases.\"
\"But we were not thinking of entire sectors carrying on, like the fossil fuel sectors, for example,\" he said.
At the core of net-zero emission pledges is the concept of offsetting emissions, but scientists warn that the nature-based proposals are limited and fraught with potential environmental justice issues and the technology-based proposals haven't nearly caught up with the scale and pace of emissions. The myriad of net-zero pledges are likely betting the planet's future on the possible development of carbon removal technology emerging at some point.
\"The potential for that carbon dioxide removal is very limited,\" Rogelj, who has been a lead author for multiple annual Emissions Gap Reports by the United Nations Environment Programme, said. \"First of all, because it's expensive, because we have limited land and because we can't scale those technologies up quick.\"
![\"PHOTO:](\"http://a.abcnews.com/images/Business/carbon-emissions-file-ap-jef-211104_1636045495787_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg\")
Rogelj said ultimately, the science shows that rather than offsetting, the focus should be on deep reductions of emissions in the first place. What has emerged, however, is \"companies that basically are not focusing on reducing their greenhouse gas emissions, but rather are buying very cheap offset credits, not all of which are very reliable or trustworthy.\"
\"For a very small cost, they just continue polluting while giving the impression of trying to achieve 'net-zero,'\" he said.
There is no universal standard for offsetting or offsetting credits, Rogelj added, which is why it is important for the public to unpack what a company or even country means when they say their emissions are \"net-zero\" versus \"zero.\"
Knorr said there have been offsetting proposals \"that basically allow a company or country to emit more than pledged for when another entity does less of that.\"
\"That's often called avoidance offsetting, and it's really important to stress because it's often not very clear,\" he said, arguing that this system needs to be entirely done away with. Among the worst net-zero pledges he's seen emanating from Eastern Europe simply counted the nation's existing forest lands as an \"offset\" that then by their calculations meant they essentially had to take no action on reducing emissions while claiming a goal of \"net-zero.\"
The second two forms of offsets, according to Knorr, are \"nature-based solutions\" (like planting trees) and \"technological solutions\" (that use emerging tech to remove carbon from the atmosphere and often store it underground).
Nature-based solutions often rely on land in poorer or developing nations to make up for the carbon emitted by wealthier countries, Knorr said, adding, \"We currently have far too many tree-planting pledges for there being places, and there are also people living in these areas that might actually be then claimed for that.\"
Thunberg said in a tweet that these nature-based offsets are also often fraught with human rights and environmental justice issues.
\"Nature-based offsetting that relies heavily on land use in the Global South and in Indigenous lands risks shifting responsibility for emissions made by Global North countries to those already struggling with the impacts of the climate crisis and are least responsible for it,\" she wrote from COP26.
While technology is rapidly improving in carbon capture and removal techniques, it has been hard for them to keep up with the amount of emissions being spewed.
The world's biggest carbon capture facility opened in Iceland just last month to much fanfare. According to the calculations posted to Twitter by climate scientist Peter Kalmus, however, \"If it works, in one year it will capture three seconds worth of humanity's CO2 emissions.\"
Today the world's biggest carbon capture facility turned on. If it works, in one year it will capture three seconds worth of humanity's CO2 emissions... at incredible expense. I'm rooting for it, but only a fool would bet the planet on it. #EndFossilFuel pic.twitter.com/5ROJr4tPC9
— Peter Kalmus (@ClimateHuman) September 9, 2021
Echoing the questions of fairness raised by Thunberg and others, Tongia said that the impacts of carbon dioxide emissions on the globe are indiscriminate -- highlighting the need for wealthier nations and corporations to take actions beyond just exploiting the land or lack of carbon coming from poorer nations.
\"It doesn't matter if a rich person or a poor person emits or cuts down, carbon is a global externality or pollutant,\" he said. \"So by saying all carbon is equal, that's what offsets are intellectually driven by, that lets someone richer pay for the offset in a poor country.\"
The real, capital-intensive challenges require changing industrial processes and the infrastructure that relies on fossil fuels, according to Tongia, which can take decades before seeing a return on investments.
\"Instead of doing all of that, if you have an offset mechanism, the rich are able to say, 'Oh, I'll take an offset through low-hanging fruit that happens to be with a developing country,'\" he added, such as a forestation project, which is a relatively cheap endeavor. \"But that doesn't actually reduce their emissions, it's just a zero-sum game at one level.\"
\"The problem becomes, now let's say some years later, the poor country needs to reduce its emissions as well, there's nothing for them to offset against,\" Tongia said. \"And at that point we'll be such far along this trajectory of total emissions, that we can't rely on offsets anymore.\"
Ultimately, with the damage already done, Knorr said this \"net\" or \"offset\" faze is \"quite tangential in the current debate,\" admitting that \"to a large degree we have failed, also as scientists for example, for not calling that out.\"
Tongia said that in his research, these offsets seem to have emerged in the private sector as short-term solutions while tackling the climate crisis needs to have a much broader approach.
\"What I worry about is we're taking too simplistic of an approach; we're 'financializing' a lot of this space,\" he said. \"What these companies want is just tell me how to do it today, I'll write a check.\"
\"People are stepping up and saying I'm willing to write a check, but now translating that instrument, that writing-a-check into what action on the ground is needed to actually offset those emissions, that is still not figured out,\" he said. \"And the problem is everyone looks for quick fixes.\"
![\"PHOTO:](\"http://a.abcnews.com/images/Business/jeff-bezos-cop26-summit-ap-jef-211104_1636045843367_hpEmbed_3x2_384.jpg\")
\"It's not that people are inherently evil,\" he added of those looking for offsets. \"But in general, it's that people are looking for things that they're familiar with, comfortable with, that are visible and achievable. This is a long-haul problem, and so just looking for short-term wins isn't going to be enough.\"
Rogelj and his colleagues established a \"checklist\" for how consumers can hold leaders accountable with their net-zero plans.
The threefold checklist includes examining the scope, fairness and road map of these plans.
The scope asks what global temperature goal does the plan contribute to, what is the target date for net-zero, which greenhouse gases are considered, what is the extent of the emissions, what are the relative contributions of offsets and how will risks around offsets be managed.
The fairness arm asks what principles are being applied, what the consequences for others are if these principles are applied universally, how will the individual target affect others' capacity to achieve net zero and more.
\"Net-zero targets globally are a zero-sum game,\" Rogelj said. \"If one country or company reduces emissions more slowly, then another country or company needs to do more for the same global net-zero target to be met. And that is really where this question of adequacy and fairness comes into play.\"
\"So, based on whether one operates in a sector that has a lot of mitigation potential, that has a lot of carbon dioxide removal potential, that has really large profit margins, it can be considered more or less fair to go slow or on the other hand to go particularly fast on carbon dioxide mitigation,\" he said.
Finally, the roadmap asks for milestones and policies, monitoring and review systems to assess progress, and if net zero will be maintained or if it is a step toward net negative.
\"Besides net-zero pledges, it is absolutely essential that the private sector sets targets that are measurable over the near term, and targets that really show the trajectory on which a company or a sector is evolving towards a long-term pledge,\" Rogelj said. \"Setting pledges for three decades in the future, and not working towards them, is simply greenwash.\"
Tongia similarly said there needs to be a clearer set of standards among the slew of net-zero pledges that can mean so many different things.
\"There's so many layers at which accounting gets very, very tricky and messy,\" Tongia said of emissions and offsets. \"So, what we need is far better accounting norms, and then we can figure out, 'Well, these will get full [offset] credit, these will get partial credit, these will share the credit and these should just be thrown out the window.'\"
![\"PHOTO:](\"http://a.abcnews.com/images/Business/california-wildfire-file-gty-jef-211104_1636045932699_hpEmbed_11x7_384.jpg\")
Tongia also argued that in order to be conducted humanely and fairly, more onus on high emitters to reduce emissions immediately is absolutely necessary.
Knorr said he now recommends a global body dishes out strict \"carbon budgets\" that limit the total amount of emissions without relying on offsets.
\"'Net-zero' allows you to reliably at least carry on your business model for quite a long time,\" Knorr said. \"I don't want to say that people who come up with these pledges aren't acting responsibly ... but it is very clear that they are buying time, and that kind of rapid reduction immediately right now hasn't happened.\"
\"The impact of these pledges being in the future is negative,\" Knorr said, equating it to somebody battling addiction who continues to binge a substance now, but promises by a far-off date they will quit. \"Everybody knows that doesn't work.\"
He added, \"Without honesty and going a bit deeper into ourselves and admitting our dependence on cheap energy ... I think there's a big risk that net-zero pledges will have actually even a perverse incentive to just carry on.\"
","canonicalUrl":"https://abcnews.com/US/experts-corporate-net-emissions-pledges-net-impact-climate/story?id=80798850","legacySlug":"/news/story/experts-corporate-net-emissions-pledges-net-impact-climate-80798850","noIndexNoFollow":false},"publishTime":"09:06","publishDate":"11-05-2021","updatedTime":"09:14","updatedDate":"11-05-2021","socialImage":{"alt":"Steam comes out of the chimneys of the coal-fired power station in Niederaussem, Germany, Oct. 24, 2021.","credit":"Michael Probst/AP, FILE","ratio":"16x9","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/Business/carbon-emissions-file-ap-jef-211104_1636045495787_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg","width":992,"height":558},"datePublished":"11/5/2021 09:06:21 GMT","video":{"live":false,"id":80798850,"headline":"'Net-zero' pledges could have net-zero impact","mediaAssetTitle":"COP26 - NET ZERO EMISSIONS EXPLAINER","description":"Scientists say we are betting our planet's future on vague commitments.","duration":"3:29","posterImg":{"url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","width":608,"height":342},"video":{"feed":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2021/11/211104_vod_orig_netzeroemissions_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8"},"playlist":["132055565","131830882","130993584"]},"relatedItems":[{"contentType":"video","date":"April 15, 2026","headline":"American influencer found dead in Tanzania","section":"News","slug":"/video/132055565","id":"132055565","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: American influencer found dead in Tanzania","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: American influencer found dead in Tanzania","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260415_gma_norwood_ashlee2_732_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"April 8, 2026","headline":"Ceasefire analysis, unanswered questions ahead","section":"News","slug":"/video/131830882","id":"131830882","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Ceasefire analysis, unanswered questions ahead","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Ceasefire analysis, unanswered questions ahead","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260408_gma_krl1_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}},{"contentType":"video","date":"March 12, 2026","headline":"Winter whiplash plunges temperatures along the East Coast","section":"News","slug":"/video/130993584","id":"130993584","image":{"alt":"VIDEO: Winter whiplash plunges temperatures along the East Coast","credit":"ABCNews.com","ratio":"1x1","url":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","width":384,"height":384},"images":{"alt":"VIDEO: Winter whiplash plunges temperatures along the East Coast","credit":"ABCNews.com","crops":[{"16x9":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_16x9_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"9x16":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_9x16_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_9x16_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg"}},{"1x1":{"small":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_1x1_608.jpg","medium":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_1x1_992.jpg","large":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/260312_gma_zee_storm2_hpMain_1x1_1600.jpg"}}]}}],"relatedContentSection":"news","schemaContent":{"name":"'Net-zero' pledges could have net-zero impact","description":"Scientists say we are betting our planet's future on vague commitments.","duration":"3:29","uploadDate":"11-05-2021","publication":"11-05-2021","images":"https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/default-img-undefined.png","url":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2021/11/211104_vod_orig_netzeroemissions_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","contentUrl":"https://service-pkgabcnews.akamaized.net/opp/hls/abcnews/2021/11/211104_vod_orig_netzeroemissions_,500,800,1200,1800,2500,3200,4500,.mp4.csmil/playlist.m3u8","link":"https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/experts-corporate-net-emissions-pledges-net-impact-climate-80798850"}},"playlist":[{"id":"132054443","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132054798","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"132033010","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131912713","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131830583","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131834976","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554765","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131554815","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131543053","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131432442","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131121474","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131247079","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131228784","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131178806","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131142257","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131046664","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131048076","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"131033212","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"130999943","contentType":"story","section":"news"},{"id":"130971027","contentType":"story","section":"news"}],"kvps":{"pgtyp":"article","lang":"en","sp":"goodmorningamerica","programmatic":"true","bundleId":"com.abcnews"}},"analytics":{"accountID":"wdgnewwdgnewgmaweb","ns":"gma","pageName":"gma:news:video","pageType":"video","globalSpecVersion":"v1.08","siteDifferentiator":"gma:site","tagID":"g_page01","userABCookie":"0","section":"news","title":"'Net-zero' pledges could have net-zero impact","pubTime":"05:06","pubDate":"11-05-2021","modTime":"05:14","modDate":"11-05-2021","taxonomyTags":"none","id":80798850,"editorialOtherSubjects":"","wordCount":"none","columns":"none","authors":"","authorsUnit":"none","authorsBureau":"none","subBrand":"Good Morning America","provider":"Good Morning America","videoName":"'Net-zero' pledges could have net-zero impact","mediaAssetTitle":"COP26 - NET ZERO EMISSIONS EXPLAINER","videoId":80798850,"mediaOnPage":"video","legacySlug":"/news/story/experts-corporate-net-emissions-pledges-net-impact-climate-80798850"},"taboola":{}},"request":{"headers":{},"httpVersion":"1.1","method":"GET","url":"/video/80798850","vary":{"host":"www.goodmorningamerica.com","cached":true,"path":"/video/80798850","forwarded-proto":"https","device":"desktop","userab":"0"}},"viewport":{"width":1260,"height":0},"user":{}};