In Virginia, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin and the GOP-controlled House of Delegates have been at loggerheads with the Democratic-controlled state Senate since the 2021 election. But today, all 100 House seats and all 40 Senate seats are on the ballot, giving Republicans a chance of capturing a “ trifecta” — control of the governorship and the entire General Assembly. Such a result would have major ramifications, most notably for abortion rights. Youngkin has pushed for a 15-week abortion ban, which would reverse Virginia’s status as the last Southern state with lesser restrictions on abortion rights.

There hasn’t been much polling, but things look highly competitive. A handful of polls in late September through late October asked likely voters if they planned to vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming election and found party preferences pretty evenly split.

Control of both chambers will come down to a small number of hotly-contested districts, which look much different after the latest round of redistricting. The most competitive seats lie in suburban or exurban areas of the state’s three major metropolitan areas of Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads. In the Senate, Democrats may have a slight edge, as they appear favored in 19 seats to the GOP’s 16. That means Republicans would need to win four of the remaining five highly competitive seats to get to a 20-20 tie (which would hand them control via Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears’s tiebreaking vote). The House map looks closer to a pure toss-up, with fewer than 10 seats likely to decide things.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Welcome to election night 2023! Polls are open today in at least 37 states, and Americans have been casting their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. 538 analysts will be here throughout the evening to bring you live updates and analysis from races across the country.

We’ll be closely tracking returns in some of today’s biggest races, including governor’s races in Kentucky and Mississippi; state-legislative contests in Virginia, New Jersey and Mississippi; Ohio’s ballot question on whether to codify the right to abortion; a Supreme Court contest in Pennsylvania; and a handful of congressional and state-legislative special elections.

We’ll also be keeping an eye on down-ballot and local contests, like mayoral and school board elections, and we’ll be digging deeper on what these results mean — or don’t mean — for Democrats, Republicans and, of course, the 2024 election. In addition to battling over who will control state and local policy, parties and activists are testing the waters for even bigger organizing and messaging efforts heading into next year. Will abortion continue to drive Democratic turnout and enthusiasm over a year after the Dobbs decision? How will races play out in states with newly drawn maps? Will Republicans sweep all three governor’s races this fall? Will Democrats continue to overperform in special elections?

Keep this page open and stick with us to find out!

—Tia Yang, 538

Check out my video on the Kentucky governor’s race, explaining who the candidates are and who’s favored to win tonight.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538