Now that all polls have closed in Vermont and Kentucky, ABC News is projecting that Harris will win Vermont's three electoral votes, and that Trump will win Kentucky's eight votes. Of course, this should come as no surprise; according to the final 538 forecast in these two states, there was a less than 1 in 100 chance of either state flipping its support from the party it backed in 2020.

It's now 7 p.m. Eastern, which means polls in our first bunch of states have now fully closed! That means we may get our first projections of the evening shortly. Keep an eye out as results roll in from Indiana and Kentucky (where many polls closed at 6 p.m. Eastern), along with all of Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Here are our forecasts for the races in all of those states:

Many polling places are also closing in Florida and New Hampshire. Stay tuned for our forecasts in those states when they've fully closed in an hour.

We won't know much until later, of course, but the vibe in Milwaukee has very much been one of mobilization, with Democrats in particular determined not to make the same perceived mistakes that the Clinton campaign made in 2016. Turnout in Milwaukee, a Democratic city with a large Black population, has been lower than in the rest of the state in recent elections. With a competitive Senate race and the polls very close in the presidential race, this has been a source of concern for Democrats. But it looks like there's been a lot of energy going into addressing this turnout gap.

Here's the anecdotal view from the ground as we wait for better data: I spent a little time in a coffee shop today, and I might have been the only one who wasn't out canvassing. One person (in a Harris shirt) went around the coffee shop to make sure everyone had voted. On Saturday, I heard reports that the northwest side of the city, a predominantly African American area, had been so thoroughly canvassed by early afternoon that the volunteers were sent home or to other areas. Friends working the polls in the city have suggested a lot of activity and new registrations.

I've been seeing some posts on X making the rounds that emphasize how Trump is performing somewhat worse in most of the 30 or so Indiana and Kentucky counties that have reported at least some of their vote tally. But not a single one of those counties has yet reported more than two-thirds of its expected vote, and many of those counties' tallies include a large percentage or at least some substantial number of absentee/mail-in ballots, which we know are somewhat more Democratic than votes cast on Election Day. We need more votes before we can say something more substantial about what's happening in these places.y

As I mentioned earlier on the blog, women make up 41% of Democrats' members of Congress, but just 15% of Republicans' members of Congress. That gap is unlikely to shrink after all the races today are projected, because the GOP nominated fewer women to run this cycle, compared to the last two cycles, and only a handful were nominated to run in safe districts.

While there are a number of incumbent female Republicans in Congress almost certain to retain their seats today, []() of GOP primary races, there will likely only be two new faces among the ranks of GOP women in the chambers. That's because non-incumbent female nominees were very uncommon in competitive or safely Republican seats this year. There are only two non-incumbent women running in districts rated as Solid Republican in 538's latest forecast: Julie Fedorchak in North Dakota and Sheri Biggs in South Carolina, who are both shoo-ins for open seats currently held by Republican men.

There are seven other non-incumbent Republican women we will be watching tonight, but they are running in races that our forecast rate as "Likely Democratic" Of these, only two are in open races, while the rest are challenging Democratic incumbents: Kari Lake, who is running in the open Arizona Senate race and wins just 22-in-100 simulations in our forecast against Ruben Gallegos, and Caroleene Dobson, who wins just 9-in-100 simulations against Shomari Figures.

We will be watching these races, and a handful of others where Republican women could win, today: