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Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump depart the stage at an election night watch party, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla.
3:04
Evan Vucci/AP
Elon Musk joins Trump’s calls with world leaders
By 538 and ABC News
Last Updated: November 10, 2024, 2:52 AM

Just days after former President Donald Trump was projected to have won the presidency, Trump's transition team operation has begun, with transition co-chairs confirming that he will be selecting personnel to serve under his leadership in the coming days.

Trump is also the projected winner in Arizona, a state the former president flipped after losing it to Joe Biden in 2020.

Trump's projected win in the vital swing state marks a sweep of the battleground states.

Key Headlines

  • With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states
  • Steve Witkoff and Kelly Loeffler to lead Trump's inaugural efforts
  • Trump to meet with Biden Wednesday
  • Maryland election boards receive bomb threats as ballots are counted
  • Steve Witkoff and Kelly Loeffler expected to lead Trump's inaugural efforts
  • Trump projected winner in Nevada
  • Trump announces chief of staff
Here's how the news is developing.

Nov 10, 2024 2:52 AM

With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

President-elect Donald Trump is the projected winner of all seven closely watched battleground states in the 2024 election, ABC News reports.

The final tally of swing state victories comes after Trump was projected to win Arizona -- the final state, overall, to have a projected winner after Tuesday's presidential election.

On the campaign trail, Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, both made repeated visits to the seven battleground states.

Trump's sweep of the swing states netted him 93 total electoral votes.

His margin of victories in the swing states ranged from more than 189,000 votes in North Carolina to a much narrower 30,000 votes in Wisconsin, according to unofficial vote tallies.

With the projection for Arizona, the final electoral count for the 2024 election is 312 electoral votes for Trump and 226 for Harris.

That bests Trump's previous 304-227 showing in 2016 against Hillary Clinton and also tops President Joe Biden's 306-232 win over Trump in the 2020 election.


Nov 10, 2024 2:01 AM

Trump projected winner in Arizona

President-elect Donald Trump is the projected winner in Arizona, ABC News reports.


Nov 09, 2024 11:53 PM

Trump says Haley, Pompeo won't be part of 2nd administration

President-elect Donald Trump announced Saturday that two of his former cabinet members won't be returning with him to the White House.

"I will not be inviting former Ambassador Nikki Haley, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, to join the Trump Administration," he said in a Truth Social post.

Trump thanked them for their service.

-ABC News' Lalee Ibssa



Nov 09, 2024 8:21 PM

Steve Witkoff and Kelly Loeffler to lead Trump's inaugural efforts

President-elect Donald Trump announced on Saturday that his close friend Steve Witkoff and former Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler will co-chair the Trump Vance Inaugural Committee, as ABC News reported yesterday.

"This will be the kick-off to my administration, which will deliver on bold promises to Make America Great Again. Together, we will celebrate this moment, steeped on history and tradition, and then get to work to achieve the most incredible future for our people, restoring strength, success, and common sense to the Oval Office," Trump said in a statement.

Witkoff and Loeffler have been among the biggest fundraisers for Trump this election cycle, hosting multiple key campaign fundraisers as well as accompanying him to campaign rallies.

-ABC News' Lalee Ibssa


Nov 05, 2024 8:44 PM
By G. Elliott Morris

Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout

In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden's margin over then-president Donald Trump by about 4 percentage points in competitive states. The margin between Harris and Trump in 538's final polling averages of the 2024 race is 2 points or less — less than half the error from 2020 — in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That means that, if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and 312 Electoral College votes.

Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is impossible to predict in advance, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and 319 electoral votes.

Both of these outcomes — and everything in between — are very much on the table today. But are these scenarios actually likely, or more like outside possibilities? Well, that's where the work we do for our election forecasting model can be helpful. In our final presidential forecast, Trump and Harris have nearly identical odds to win the White House.

Based on how much polls have been off in the past, our election model estimates that the average polling error in competitive states this year will be 3.8 points on the margin. In other words, the model is expecting a roughly 2020-sized polling error — although not necessarily in the same direction as 2020. (In 50% of the model's simulations, Trump beats his polls, and 50% of the time, Harris does.)

Given that all seven key swing states are so close, even small polling errors in the same direction can have a big impact on who wins the election. According to the simulations from our model, there is a 60-in-100 chance either candidate wins over 300 Electoral College votes — which Harris could do by winning five of the seven swing states and Trump six out of the seven. By modern standards, I think it's fair to consider this a blowout win — given how closely divided the country is, it's relatively unlikely for either candidate to win much more than this. (Even to get to 320 electoral votes, Trump would have to win a state like Minnesota and Harris would have to win a state like Florida.)

Of course, the probability of a blowout either way depends heavily on the popular vote outcome. This is on vivid display in the chart below, which takes all the simulations from our model and buckets them by popular vote outcome:

As you can see, Trump is favored to win the election even if he loses the popular vote by 1-2 points, which is what our national polling average currently suggests. And if the national polls turn out to be underestimating him, with Trump winning the popular vote by 1-2 points, he would be favored to win in a blowout.

Meanwhile, our model reckons Harris needs to win the popular vote by 2.1 points to be favored to win the election because swing states are more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. And if she wins the popular vote by 4.5 points (Biden's popular-vote margin in 2020), she is favored to win in a blowout of her own.


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