That’s all from us for today. As of 12:30 a.m. Eastern, 95 percent of the expected vote is reporting. Trump leads with around 51 percent of the vote, followed by DeSantis with 21 percent, Haley with 19 percent and Ramaswamy with 8 percent.

To recap some of the key moments of the night: Trump’s win was projected only around 30 minutes into the caucuses; DeSantis kept his campaign alive with a respectable second-place showing; and Ramaswamy’s fourth-place result prompted him to exit the race and throw his support behind Trump.

We’ll have more analysis as to what it all means in coming days, and of course, we hope to see you back here next Tuesday as we do it all again in New Hampshire! Thanks for sticking with us.

—Tia Yang, 538

Tonight’s Iowa caucuses didn’t hold many surprises. Trump was expected to win by a huge margin, and he did. DeSantis and Haley were expected to duke it out for second place, and they did. You could argue that DeSantis outpacing Haley was a bit of a surprise, given all the dooming around DeSantis’s campaign and Haley’s late momentum in the polls, but I don’t think the “Haley’s-in-second” conventional wisdom had really sunk in yet, so neither of those results felt out of place.

I will say, though, this wasn’t the best combination of events for Haley. She finished third, so she probably won’t get a huge boost leading into New Hampshire, a must-win state for her. And Ramaswamy’s withdrawal from the race could actually help Trump gain some ground there in the next few days. Trump was already very likely to win the nomination, but it’s really over if he wins New Hampshire — and that probably just got a little more likely.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

The contest in Iowa played out as I expected it would, but of course the primary is not quite over. Anything could still happen, especially this year. But it does look like Trump will coast to the nomination despite all of the unprecedented baggage he brings with him. He's been too heavily a favorite among Republican voters, many of whom believe he actually won the 2020 election and should be president now. While it's true that most Americans seem blah about a 2016 rematch, it's also true that both parties' voters aren't lining up behind alternative candidates.

Of course, we'll all reconvene in about a week to see what happens in New Hampshire.

—Monica Potts, 538

Other than his one-vote loss in Johnson County, it's hard to find much that went wrong for Trump tonight. He won a majority of the vote and carried pretty much every demographic category (especially ones that make up the bedrock of the GOP primary electorate). The most Trump-like candidate in the race, who was still siphoning off a chunk of MAGA votes, dropped out and endorsed him. His two main challengers effectively tied, denying either of them the momentum or comeback narrative they desperately sought in Iowa. And you have to imagine the deep-pocketed donors who flooded Iowa with tens of millions of dollars of pro-Haley and pro-DeSantis advertising have to be wondering about their return on investment.

The New Hampshire primary is in eight days and might well be the toughest contest for Trump of the entire primary process, so it's good for him he can approach it with a full head of steam. The window of opportunity for any non-Trump candidate to alter the course of this race, such that it was ever open, is rapidly closing.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

All eyes are on the horse race tonight to see who will emerge victorious from the first-in-the-nation contest for the Republican presidential nomination. Polls have long told us that Trump is a clear favorite — but what issues are motivating Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, and are they in line with their party nationally?

On immigration, Republican caucusgoers in Iowa are far to the right, and seem to agree with some of Trump's stated plans. In an October Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll, 80 percent of likely caucusgoers said immigration and border security were extremely important to them. A survey from the same pollsters in December found that, when asked about Trump's statement that immigrants who enter the U.S. illegally are "poisoning the blood of America," a plurality of 42 percent of likely caucusgoers said the statement made them more likely to support him. A slim majority, 50 percent, also said they were more likely to vote for Trump when he promised "sweeping raids, giant camps and mass deportations" as an immigration policy. Trump's rivals seem to have taken cues too, as they've embraced more extreme policy rhetoric on immigration and invested in ads focused on the issue.

And on abortion, Republican caucusgoers seem to lie a bit further right than other Republicans. 75 percent want abortion in Iowa to be illegal in all or most cases, per a YouGov/CBS News poll conducted in December>, and half said they wanted the Republican nominee for 2024 to be someone who would support a national abortion ban. These are higher numbers than we've seen in similar national polls of Republican primary voters, and could put some voters off both Trump and Haley, who have been dinged for moderating on the issue during the campaign.

Continued use of ethanol as a gasoline additive is another, more Iowa-specific, issue in the state; as much as half the state's corn crop is used in ethanol production. Per a November ARC Insights/Fields of Freedom survey, overwhelming majorities of Iowa caucusgoers think ethanol is important to both energy independence and the national economy, and want their candidate to include its use in a national energy policy. That means they're likely not fans of the Biden administration's push to expand production and use of electric vehicles — a talking point that most Republican candidates have taken up.