As of 11:45 p.m., 97 percent of the expected vote is reporting in New York’s 3rd District, and Suozzi is leading Pilip 54 percent to 46 percent. Although that margin will probably narrow by a couple of points when all is said and done, it’s clear that Suozzi has scored a big win for Democrats that will have big implications both on Long Island and in Washington, D.C.

Rather than stay up for every last ballot to be counted (often a fool’s errand in New York), we’re calling it a night here on the ol’ live blog. Thanks so much for joining us, and we hope to see you back here for the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (😱), Feb. 24!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it's pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election, but Suozzi led by 4 points, not too different from his actual win. And revealingly, nearly one-fourth of Suozzi's supporters had an unfavorable view of Biden. Now, Suozzi has a long-established political profile on Long Island that likely won over some voters displeased with Biden. But at the same time, this suggests that Biden — despite his 38 percent approval rating — might still be able to win over some of the voters who are frustrated with the status quo, especially in a "choice" election between him and Trump.

I say this because we saw something like this in the 2022 midterm elections, when the exit poll found that Democrats narrowly won among those who somewhat disapproved of Biden's job performance. This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance. Right now, Biden is running about even or even slightly behind Trump in the polls, so a major question will be whether some voters who are unhappy with Biden but voted for Democrats in recent elections might still go for him by the time we get to November.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In terms of what factors might actually externalize out of NY-03 tonight, I'd pick the durable appeal of the ideological moderate as a likely one. This is not the place to rehash the social science evidence for the benefits of ideological moderation in general elections, but note that Suozzi ran to the right of most Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. These are issues that are particularly important to New Yorkers right now, but also relevant in other swing districts.

Abstracting from that, one piece of "News Analysis" ( scare quotes intentional) is that much of the coverage of Joe Biden's potentially weakness versus Donald Trump in November has revolved around the president's weakness with lefty young voters over the situation in Israel-Gaza since October. And while that may end up proving consequential, an easier prediction is that Biden will suffer more if he is seen as a liberal ideologue.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Despite what looks to be a relatively comfortable win for Democrats tonight, our entire conversation tonight only emphasizes how closely the country is divided on partisan lines.

As Nathaniel said, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House, and Democrats will be fighting to keep their majority in the Senate this fall. It's early, but we expect the presidential election to be close. Whatever happens in any individual race, politics in the country remains deeply divided. We'll keep seeing more evidence of that the closer we get to November.

—Monica Potts, 538

The U.S. House of Representatives isn’t the only legislative body with close margins. For the past year, Democrats have held a one-seat (at times no-seat) majority in the Pennsylvania state House — their first in over 10 years. Their tumultuous first year in power saw six special elections held on three separate dates. And today, for the fourth time in just over a year, another state legislative special election will determine the balance of power in the commonwealth’s lower chamber.

The latest race pits Democratic attorney and school board member Jim Prokopiak against Republican restaurant server and former health care aide Candace Cabanas, to fill a seat vacated in December by nine-term Democratic Rep. John Galloway. It’s not a sure thing, but Democrats are favored to hold onto the district, located north of Philadelphia and across the Delaware River from Trenton: In 2020, Biden would have carried it 56 percent to 43 percent. The seat’s importance to maintaining Democrats’ fragile House majority also helped Prokopiak build a massive fundraising advantage over Cabanas.

A Democratic win today would shore up their current 101-100 majority, while a Republican upset would wrest back control. (Although the chamber would be tied at 101-101, there would be one vacant seat previously held by a Republican — and per chamber rules, the House majority in the case of a tie goes to the party that last controlled the vacant seats.)

Meanwhile, four other state legislative special elections will also be held tonight: one in the Bronx, one in the Oklahoma City region and two in Georgia. While these are all expected to be relatively sleepy races, they’re worth noting as data points, to Nathaniel’s earlier note about special elections as predictors of national election results.

—Tia Yang, 538