As of 11:45 p.m., 97 percent of the expected vote is reporting in New York’s 3rd District, and Suozzi is leading Pilip 54 percent to 46 percent. Although that margin will probably narrow by a couple of points when all is said and done, it’s clear that Suozzi has scored a big win for Democrats that will have big implications both on Long Island and in Washington, D.C.

Rather than stay up for every last ballot to be counted (often a fool’s errand in New York), we’re calling it a night here on the ol’ live blog. Thanks so much for joining us, and we hope to see you back here for the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (😱), Feb. 24!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it's pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election, but Suozzi led by 4 points, not too different from his actual win. And revealingly, nearly one-fourth of Suozzi's supporters had an unfavorable view of Biden. Now, Suozzi has a long-established political profile on Long Island that likely won over some voters displeased with Biden. But at the same time, this suggests that Biden — despite his 38 percent approval rating — might still be able to win over some of the voters who are frustrated with the status quo, especially in a "choice" election between him and Trump.

I say this because we saw something like this in the 2022 midterm elections, when the exit poll found that Democrats narrowly won among those who somewhat disapproved of Biden's job performance. This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance. Right now, Biden is running about even or even slightly behind Trump in the polls, so a major question will be whether some voters who are unhappy with Biden but voted for Democrats in recent elections might still go for him by the time we get to November.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In terms of what factors might actually externalize out of NY-03 tonight, I'd pick the durable appeal of the ideological moderate as a likely one. This is not the place to rehash the social science evidence for the benefits of ideological moderation in general elections, but note that Suozzi ran to the right of most Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. These are issues that are particularly important to New Yorkers right now, but also relevant in other swing districts.

Abstracting from that, one piece of "News Analysis" ( scare quotes intentional) is that much of the coverage of Joe Biden's potentially weakness versus Donald Trump in November has revolved around the president's weakness with lefty young voters over the situation in Israel-Gaza since October. And while that may end up proving consequential, an easier prediction is that Biden will suffer more if he is seen as a liberal ideologue.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Despite what looks to be a relatively comfortable win for Democrats tonight, our entire conversation tonight only emphasizes how closely the country is divided on partisan lines.

As Nathaniel said, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House, and Democrats will be fighting to keep their majority in the Senate this fall. It's early, but we expect the presidential election to be close. Whatever happens in any individual race, politics in the country remains deeply divided. We'll keep seeing more evidence of that the closer we get to November.

—Monica Potts, 538

You can bet that, no matter the outcome of the race in New York tonight, the winning party will find favorable tea leaves for 2024. But it’s important to keep in mind that Pilip and Suozzi are both atypical candidates running in an atypical race — November will likely look very different.

If Republicans win, they’ll point to immigration as a key issue in 2024, one that allowed them to maintain hold of a district that Biden carried by 8 percentage points and step out of the shadow of Santos. It’s a sign that Democrats have indeed gone too far left and a referendum on Biden’s presidency, they’ll argue. But there are a few caveats to keep in mind. First, GOP leadership handpicked their nominee, whose profile is particularly well-suited to the Long Island district: an Ethiopian Jew who served in the Israeli Defense Force before immigrating from Israel to the U.S. Pilip has also said that she wouldn’t support Trump if he is convicted of a crime. If she wins, she’ll get to run for reelection this fall with the advantage of incumbency, but Republicans like her, who take a more moderate stance on both policy issues and Trump, might struggle to win over the GOP primary electorate and make it onto the ballot in November.

If Democrats win, they’ll argue that Pilip was too extreme, particularly on the issue of abortion. They’ll likely highlight the appeal of middle-of-the-road Democratic candidates like Suozzi. But Democrats don’t have Suozzis to run in every congressional district across the country, either. He’s a former member of Congress who has worked alongside Republicans to build a record as a pragmatic centrist, and also has extensive ties to his district. Like Pilip, Suozzi was chosen by party leadership, and didn’t have to veer left to win a competitive Democratic primary. We should also keep a close eye on Suozzi’s margin of victory if he wins — narrowly winning a district that Biden carried by 8 points just a few years ago wouldn’t necessarily be a great sign that Democrats are on the way to winning the House majority.

—Leah Askarinam, 538