As of 11:45 p.m., 97 percent of the expected vote is reporting in New York’s 3rd District, and Suozzi is leading Pilip 54 percent to 46 percent. Although that margin will probably narrow by a couple of points when all is said and done, it’s clear that Suozzi has scored a big win for Democrats that will have big implications both on Long Island and in Washington, D.C.

Rather than stay up for every last ballot to be counted (often a fool’s errand in New York), we’re calling it a night here on the ol’ live blog. Thanks so much for joining us, and we hope to see you back here for the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (😱), Feb. 24!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it's pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election, but Suozzi led by 4 points, not too different from his actual win. And revealingly, nearly one-fourth of Suozzi's supporters had an unfavorable view of Biden. Now, Suozzi has a long-established political profile on Long Island that likely won over some voters displeased with Biden. But at the same time, this suggests that Biden — despite his 38 percent approval rating — might still be able to win over some of the voters who are frustrated with the status quo, especially in a "choice" election between him and Trump.

I say this because we saw something like this in the 2022 midterm elections, when the exit poll found that Democrats narrowly won among those who somewhat disapproved of Biden's job performance. This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance. Right now, Biden is running about even or even slightly behind Trump in the polls, so a major question will be whether some voters who are unhappy with Biden but voted for Democrats in recent elections might still go for him by the time we get to November.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In terms of what factors might actually externalize out of NY-03 tonight, I'd pick the durable appeal of the ideological moderate as a likely one. This is not the place to rehash the social science evidence for the benefits of ideological moderation in general elections, but note that Suozzi ran to the right of most Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. These are issues that are particularly important to New Yorkers right now, but also relevant in other swing districts.

Abstracting from that, one piece of "News Analysis" ( scare quotes intentional) is that much of the coverage of Joe Biden's potentially weakness versus Donald Trump in November has revolved around the president's weakness with lefty young voters over the situation in Israel-Gaza since October. And while that may end up proving consequential, an easier prediction is that Biden will suffer more if he is seen as a liberal ideologue.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Despite what looks to be a relatively comfortable win for Democrats tonight, our entire conversation tonight only emphasizes how closely the country is divided on partisan lines.

As Nathaniel said, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House, and Democrats will be fighting to keep their majority in the Senate this fall. It's early, but we expect the presidential election to be close. Whatever happens in any individual race, politics in the country remains deeply divided. We'll keep seeing more evidence of that the closer we get to November.

—Monica Potts, 538

Since his expulsion from the House in December, Santos has been busy defending himself against federal charges. Last year, Santos was charged with 23 felonies in an election-fraud scheme in federal court. And though he previously pleaded not guilty on each count and rejected the possibility of a plea deal, prosecutors announced in December that the parties were negotiating to reach a deal for Santos to plead guilty and avoid going to trial. Santos's case is not due in court again until August, ahead of a September trial date, potentially giving his legal team and prosecutors time to reach a resolution.

As for what the charges are about, Santos is accused of a battery of fraud-related crimes, including using a fake super PAC for political donations, which he then allegedly spent on everything from his rent to botox. He was first indicted in May, but was charged with additional counts in October. Fellow Republican Rep. Max Miller from Ohio even revealed that he and his mother had been victims of Santos's alleged scheme when their credit cards were charged without their knowledge, and Miller said he suspected other House colleagues had had the same experience. Perhaps siphoning money from colleagues was not a good way to make friends: As Geoffrey mentioned earlier, Santos became only the sixth member of the House to ever be expelled, and the first in the modern era to be expelled prior to being convicted of any crimes.

Of course, appearing in court is not all that Santos is doing these days. He's also earning big bucks making appearances on Cameo and otherwise taking advantage of his 15 minutes of fame. With the election to replace him underway, and his court case pressing on toward a resolution, maybe that time is almost up.

—Monica Potts, 538