As of 11:45 p.m., 97 percent of the expected vote is reporting in New York’s 3rd District, and Suozzi is leading Pilip 54 percent to 46 percent. Although that margin will probably narrow by a couple of points when all is said and done, it’s clear that Suozzi has scored a big win for Democrats that will have big implications both on Long Island and in Washington, D.C.

Rather than stay up for every last ballot to be counted (often a fool’s errand in New York), we’re calling it a night here on the ol’ live blog. Thanks so much for joining us, and we hope to see you back here for the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (😱), Feb. 24!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it's pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election, but Suozzi led by 4 points, not too different from his actual win. And revealingly, nearly one-fourth of Suozzi's supporters had an unfavorable view of Biden. Now, Suozzi has a long-established political profile on Long Island that likely won over some voters displeased with Biden. But at the same time, this suggests that Biden — despite his 38 percent approval rating — might still be able to win over some of the voters who are frustrated with the status quo, especially in a "choice" election between him and Trump.

I say this because we saw something like this in the 2022 midterm elections, when the exit poll found that Democrats narrowly won among those who somewhat disapproved of Biden's job performance. This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance. Right now, Biden is running about even or even slightly behind Trump in the polls, so a major question will be whether some voters who are unhappy with Biden but voted for Democrats in recent elections might still go for him by the time we get to November.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In terms of what factors might actually externalize out of NY-03 tonight, I'd pick the durable appeal of the ideological moderate as a likely one. This is not the place to rehash the social science evidence for the benefits of ideological moderation in general elections, but note that Suozzi ran to the right of most Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. These are issues that are particularly important to New Yorkers right now, but also relevant in other swing districts.

Abstracting from that, one piece of "News Analysis" ( scare quotes intentional) is that much of the coverage of Joe Biden's potentially weakness versus Donald Trump in November has revolved around the president's weakness with lefty young voters over the situation in Israel-Gaza since October. And while that may end up proving consequential, an easier prediction is that Biden will suffer more if he is seen as a liberal ideologue.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Despite what looks to be a relatively comfortable win for Democrats tonight, our entire conversation tonight only emphasizes how closely the country is divided on partisan lines.

As Nathaniel said, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House, and Democrats will be fighting to keep their majority in the Senate this fall. It's early, but we expect the presidential election to be close. Whatever happens in any individual race, politics in the country remains deeply divided. We'll keep seeing more evidence of that the closer we get to November.

—Monica Potts, 538

New York’s 3rd Congressional District is an urban-suburban and well-educated district mostly situated in northern Nassau County east of New York City, although a small part crosses into northeastern Queens. Overall, 54 percent of the seat’s population that’s 25 years or older has at least a four-year college degree, compared with 36 percent nationally, ranking it among the top 10 percent of congressional districts by educational attainment. The district’s overall population is 55 percent non-Hispanic white, roughly similar to the nation as a whole, but it has a much larger share of residents with Asian backgrounds (25 percent versus about 6 percent nationally). The district is also among the wealthiest in the country by median household income (about $130,000 versus the national median of just under $75,000).

Politically, the highly-educated and affluent district is highly competitive with arguably a slight Democratic lean. Under the current district lines, first used in 2022, the seat would have backed the Democratic nominees for president by 5 and 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020, respectively, which put the seat just a bit to the left of the nation as a whole. As of November, a plurality of voters in the district were registered Democrats (39 percent), with near-equal shares of registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters (about 28 percent each; the remainder identified with minor parties).

However, the 2022 midterms showed how the seat can very much be in play for the GOP. That year, Santos won in part because of “ differential turnout,” whereby one party’s voters turn out at a much higher rate than the other’s. Based on an analysis by the Albany Times-Union, 64 percent of the district’s registered Republicans cast ballots compared with just 51 percent of Democrats. Like other Long Island Republicans, Santos received a boost from GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin, who at the time represented the eastern part of the island in Congress. Zeldin gave Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul a strong challenge, losing by just 6 points statewide, and he carried the 3rd District by 12 points — better than Santos’s 7.5-point victory margin.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538