As of 11:45 p.m., 97 percent of the expected vote is reporting in New York’s 3rd District, and Suozzi is leading Pilip 54 percent to 46 percent. Although that margin will probably narrow by a couple of points when all is said and done, it’s clear that Suozzi has scored a big win for Democrats that will have big implications both on Long Island and in Washington, D.C.

Rather than stay up for every last ballot to be counted (often a fool’s errand in New York), we’re calling it a night here on the ol’ live blog. Thanks so much for joining us, and we hope to see you back here for the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (😱), Feb. 24!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it's pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election, but Suozzi led by 4 points, not too different from his actual win. And revealingly, nearly one-fourth of Suozzi's supporters had an unfavorable view of Biden. Now, Suozzi has a long-established political profile on Long Island that likely won over some voters displeased with Biden. But at the same time, this suggests that Biden — despite his 38 percent approval rating — might still be able to win over some of the voters who are frustrated with the status quo, especially in a "choice" election between him and Trump.

I say this because we saw something like this in the 2022 midterm elections, when the exit poll found that Democrats narrowly won among those who somewhat disapproved of Biden's job performance. This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance. Right now, Biden is running about even or even slightly behind Trump in the polls, so a major question will be whether some voters who are unhappy with Biden but voted for Democrats in recent elections might still go for him by the time we get to November.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In terms of what factors might actually externalize out of NY-03 tonight, I'd pick the durable appeal of the ideological moderate as a likely one. This is not the place to rehash the social science evidence for the benefits of ideological moderation in general elections, but note that Suozzi ran to the right of most Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. These are issues that are particularly important to New Yorkers right now, but also relevant in other swing districts.

Abstracting from that, one piece of "News Analysis" ( scare quotes intentional) is that much of the coverage of Joe Biden's potentially weakness versus Donald Trump in November has revolved around the president's weakness with lefty young voters over the situation in Israel-Gaza since October. And while that may end up proving consequential, an easier prediction is that Biden will suffer more if he is seen as a liberal ideologue.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Despite what looks to be a relatively comfortable win for Democrats tonight, our entire conversation tonight only emphasizes how closely the country is divided on partisan lines.

As Nathaniel said, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House, and Democrats will be fighting to keep their majority in the Senate this fall. It's early, but we expect the presidential election to be close. Whatever happens in any individual race, politics in the country remains deeply divided. We'll keep seeing more evidence of that the closer we get to November.

—Monica Potts, 538

While you may be most familiar with Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi from his runs for New York governor — or that fact that he was Rep. Santos’s predecessor in the House — the former attorney and father of three has had a long political career in this region of New York. Suozzi was mayor of his hometown, Glen Cove, from 1994-2001, and is part of a local political dynasty: his father and uncle served as mayor of Glen Cove prior to him. He was elected Nassau County executive in 2001 and was widely praised for resuscitating the county’s finances during his eight years in that office.

Suozzi’s first run for governor came in 2006, when he lost a challenge against then-state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer in the Democratic primary. (If you’re too young to remember what happened next, have I got some reading for you.) A few years later, he lost reelection as county executive. He then spent several years in the private sector, working as an attorney and consultant. It wasn’t until Democratic Rep. Steve Israel announced his retirement in 2016 that Suozzi decided to attempt a political comeback, running to replace the 15-year House veteran later that fall. Suozzi beat out four other candidates in the competitive primary and went on to win the seat, and was reelected twice.

During his time in Congress, Suozzi focused on issues of local concern, like raising the cap on state and local tax deductions, and built a centrist record, working across the aisle on issues like immigration and serving as vice-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. He was a reliable supporter of President Biden’s policies, voting with the president 100 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis. He also got into hot water for failing to report stock trades he had made, in potential violation of insider trading laws, though the House Ethics Committee ultimately cleared him and two other representatives.

In 2021, Suozzi announced he would not run for reelection, instead challenging Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in another gubernatorial run. The primary race got heated, and many prominent Democrats were displeased with Suozzi for mounting the primary challenge in the first place. Hochul ultimately trounced Suozzi, who came in third, and he reportedly ended up apologizing to the governor in December, as part of an effort to shore up support among New York’s Democratic powerbrokers and secure the party’s nomination to reclaim his House seat.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538