As of 11:45 p.m., 97 percent of the expected vote is reporting in New York’s 3rd District, and Suozzi is leading Pilip 54 percent to 46 percent. Although that margin will probably narrow by a couple of points when all is said and done, it’s clear that Suozzi has scored a big win for Democrats that will have big implications both on Long Island and in Washington, D.C.

Rather than stay up for every last ballot to be counted (often a fool’s errand in New York), we’re calling it a night here on the ol’ live blog. Thanks so much for joining us, and we hope to see you back here for the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (😱), Feb. 24!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it's pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election, but Suozzi led by 4 points, not too different from his actual win. And revealingly, nearly one-fourth of Suozzi's supporters had an unfavorable view of Biden. Now, Suozzi has a long-established political profile on Long Island that likely won over some voters displeased with Biden. But at the same time, this suggests that Biden — despite his 38 percent approval rating — might still be able to win over some of the voters who are frustrated with the status quo, especially in a "choice" election between him and Trump.

I say this because we saw something like this in the 2022 midterm elections, when the exit poll found that Democrats narrowly won among those who somewhat disapproved of Biden's job performance. This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance. Right now, Biden is running about even or even slightly behind Trump in the polls, so a major question will be whether some voters who are unhappy with Biden but voted for Democrats in recent elections might still go for him by the time we get to November.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In terms of what factors might actually externalize out of NY-03 tonight, I'd pick the durable appeal of the ideological moderate as a likely one. This is not the place to rehash the social science evidence for the benefits of ideological moderation in general elections, but note that Suozzi ran to the right of most Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. These are issues that are particularly important to New Yorkers right now, but also relevant in other swing districts.

Abstracting from that, one piece of "News Analysis" ( scare quotes intentional) is that much of the coverage of Joe Biden's potentially weakness versus Donald Trump in November has revolved around the president's weakness with lefty young voters over the situation in Israel-Gaza since October. And while that may end up proving consequential, an easier prediction is that Biden will suffer more if he is seen as a liberal ideologue.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Despite what looks to be a relatively comfortable win for Democrats tonight, our entire conversation tonight only emphasizes how closely the country is divided on partisan lines.

As Nathaniel said, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House, and Democrats will be fighting to keep their majority in the Senate this fall. It's early, but we expect the presidential election to be close. Whatever happens in any individual race, politics in the country remains deeply divided. We'll keep seeing more evidence of that the closer we get to November.

—Monica Potts, 538

Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip has had a unique path to becoming the Republican nominee in this race. Pilip was born to Orthodox Jewish parents in a rural village in Ethiopia that, according to her campaign website, “didn’t even have running water.” When she was 12, in 1991, Pilip and her family immigrated to Israel as part of Project Solomon, a covert Israeli military operation where thousands of Ethiopian Jews were airlifted out of the country in the span of 36 hours. Pilip later served in the Israel Defense Forces before immigrating to the U.S.

A mother of seven, Pilip is a relative newcomer to politics. She was elected in 2021 as part of a red wave that resulted in a GOP supermajority in the county legislature … despite being a registered Democrat, according to reporting from Politico. In that election, Pilip defeated incumbent Democratic legislator Ellen Birnbaum, who had represented the 10th District since 2015. Prior to her political career, Pilip worked in the non-profit sector, with a specific focus on pro-Israel causes, something she has continued to champion as a legislator, most recently speaking out in October in support of Israel in its war against Hamas.

Pilip stuck to party lines during a fairly quiet tenure on the County Legislature. Among her accomplishments are securing grants for the local police department to buy speed radar signs, negotiating a land transfer from the county to expand park space, and funding the restoration of a village hall.

When it comes to the top election issues for voters, Pilip has taken a fairly moderate tack, saying she is against a national abortion ban and would not support Trump as the Republican nominee if he is convicted of a crime — a break from many of her GOP colleagues who have brushed off Trump’s legal woes. “Nobody is above the law,” Pilip told local news station PIX11. “If [Trump is] convicted of a crime, he cannot represent us. But unless we see that … I will support him. He was a great candidate, a great president. He did great things for America.”

She has, however, taken a firm stance on immigration, stating that she wants to end sanctuary city policies and invest in ICE. “We have to secure our border. That’s our top priority,” she said at a press conference last month outside a migrant tent city in Queens. She also aligned with House conservatives and Trump in opposing the bipartisan border security deal that stalled in the Senate last week, calling it “the legalization of the invasion of our country.”

While she lacks the wider notoriety and political experience of her Democratic opponent, Pilip is well known in the region and is active outside of her political duties, including serving as vice president of her synagogue.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538