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Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

Super Tuesday 2024: Live results and analysis from 538.
38:48
ABC News Photo Illustration
Super Tuesday brings a couple surprises | 538 Politics Podcast
By 538 Staff
Last Updated: March 15, 2024, 8:48 PM

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

  • That's a wrap!
  • New projections in California's 20th and 31st
  • No runoff after all in North Carolina's 6th
  • Some projections in California
  • Biden and Trump are officially presumptive nominees
Here's how the news is developing.

Mar 15, 2024 8:48 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

That's a wrap!

Well, reader, we were determined to keep this live blog going until every Super Tuesday race had been resolved, but even we have our limits. In preparation for next week's primary live blog, we're wrapping this one up. Here's where things stand in all the races we're still tracking:

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 16th District, we're still not sure who will join Democrat Sam Liccardo in the general election. Democrat Evan Low and Democrat Joe Simitian both currently have 17 percent of the vote, and Low is just 63 votes ahead of Simitian.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel is a safe bet to advance, but it's a close race for second. Democrats Derek Tran and Kim Nguyen-Penaloza are both at 16 percent, with Tran just 256 votes ahead.

- With 98 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for North Carolina's 8th District, Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just above the 30 percent threshold he needs to avoid a runoff. The AP has gone ahead and called the primary for Harris, but ABC News has not yet reported whether Harris will win outright or be forced into a runoff.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Democratic primary for Texas's 32nd District, Julie Johnson is similarly hovering at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. While the AP has called this race for Johnson, ABC News has not yet reported whether a runoff will be needed.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Mar 15, 2024 8:40 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

New projections in California's 20th and 31st

We've got answers on two California House races that were still outstanding! In California's 20th District, ABC News reports that Republican Mike Boudreaux will make the general election, where he will face fellow Republican Vince Fong (who was already projected to advance). It's no surprise that no Democrats made the general election here, as this is the reddest seat in California. (It used to be represented by Kevin McCarthy.)

Similarly, in California's 31st District, ABC News reports that Republican Daniel Martinez will advance to the general election, joining Democrat Gil Cisneros (who was already projected to advance). That's good news for Cisneros; since this is a solidly blue seat, he will have no trouble in the general election against Martinez, whereas he would've faced a tougher campaign against a fellow Democrat.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Mar 13, 2024 7:52 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

No runoff after all in North Carolina's 6th

Various news organizations (including ABC News) had projected that Republicans Addison McDowell and Mark Walker would advance to a runoff election in North Carolina's 6th District. However, that contest has now been called off. According to Spectrum News's Reuben Jones, Walker is taking a job with Trump's campaign and will not request a runoff after all. (In North Carolina, the second-place finisher has to request a runoff, it doesn't happen automatically.)

This maneuver is probably not a coincidence given that Trump endorsed McDowell in December. Regardless, it means that McDowell will be the GOP nominee here and very likely the district's next congressman, since Trump carried the 6th District by 16 points in 2020.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538



Mar 13, 2024 2:49 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

Some projections in California

The general-election candidates are set in one of this fall's most competitive House races. ABC News reports that in California's 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas are projected to advance to the general election, setting up a rematch of the 2022 race that Valadao won by just 3 points.

In addition, ABC News reports that Democrat Sam Liccardo and Democrat Gil Cisernos are projected to make the general election in California's 16th and 31st districts, respectively. Their general-election opponents, however, are still TBD.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Mar 05, 2024 10:11 PM
By Geoffrey Skelley

Adam Schiff is hoping to effectively end California's Senate race tonight

The biggest downballot race in California is its U.S. Senate contest. Although 27 candidates filed for the race to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein — who died last fall — the four leading contenders are Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, plus Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player. The front-runner appears to be Schiff, who is polling at around 25 percent in 538's California primary polling average. This puts him just a bit ahead of Garvey and Porter, who are right around 20 percent for the coveted second spot. Behind them is Lee, who is polling just under 10 percent.

PHOTO: 538's final polling average for the 2024 California Senate top-two primary.
538 Photo Illustration
538's final polling average for the 2024 California Senate top-two primary.
538 Photo Illustration

The race has largely centered on Schiff and Porter, both of whom are fundraising powerhouses. As of Feb. 14, Schiff had brought in $29.8 million in net contributions, while Porter had collected $16.7 million, putting them each well ahead of Lee ($4.8 million) and Garvey ($2.1 million). The two leading Democrats also brought over huge sums left over from their House accounts — $21 million for Schiff and $7.4 million for Porter.

In the final weeks, Schiff has tried to use his massive campaign war chest to push Garvey into second place. Schiff has run ads that attack Garvey for his conservative views and past support for Trump, but the spots intend to raise Garvey's profile among Republican voters. By doing that, Schiff could help Garvey consolidate the GOP vote and finish ahead of Porter, relieving Schiff of a demanding general election campaign against the fellow Democrat. A pro-cryptocurrency super PAC may also help Schiff out, after swooping in with $10 million in outside spending seeking to derail Porter.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


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