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Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

Super Tuesday 2024: Live results and analysis from 538.
38:48
ABC News Photo Illustration
Super Tuesday brings a couple surprises | 538 Politics Podcast
By 538 Staff
Last Updated: March 15, 2024, 8:48 PM

March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! With former President Donald Trump projected to win 14 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley announced Wednesday morning that she is suspending her campaign.

It was also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas.

538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

  • That's a wrap!
  • New projections in California's 20th and 31st
  • No runoff after all in North Carolina's 6th
  • Some projections in California
  • Biden and Trump are officially presumptive nominees
Here's how the news is developing.

Mar 15, 2024 8:48 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

That's a wrap!

Well, reader, we were determined to keep this live blog going until every Super Tuesday race had been resolved, but even we have our limits. In preparation for next week's primary live blog, we're wrapping this one up. Here's where things stand in all the races we're still tracking:

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 16th District, we're still not sure who will join Democrat Sam Liccardo in the general election. Democrat Evan Low and Democrat Joe Simitian both currently have 17 percent of the vote, and Low is just 63 votes ahead of Simitian.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in California's 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel is a safe bet to advance, but it's a close race for second. Democrats Derek Tran and Kim Nguyen-Penaloza are both at 16 percent, with Tran just 256 votes ahead.

- With 98 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for North Carolina's 8th District, Mark Harris is at 30.4 percent, just above the 30 percent threshold he needs to avoid a runoff. The AP has gone ahead and called the primary for Harris, but ABC News has not yet reported whether Harris will win outright or be forced into a runoff.

- With 99 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Democratic primary for Texas's 32nd District, Julie Johnson is similarly hovering at 50.4 percent, which would just barely be enough to avoid a runoff. While the AP has called this race for Johnson, ABC News has not yet reported whether a runoff will be needed.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Mar 15, 2024 8:40 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

New projections in California's 20th and 31st

We've got answers on two California House races that were still outstanding! In California's 20th District, ABC News reports that Republican Mike Boudreaux will make the general election, where he will face fellow Republican Vince Fong (who was already projected to advance). It's no surprise that no Democrats made the general election here, as this is the reddest seat in California. (It used to be represented by Kevin McCarthy.)

Similarly, in California's 31st District, ABC News reports that Republican Daniel Martinez will advance to the general election, joining Democrat Gil Cisneros (who was already projected to advance). That's good news for Cisneros; since this is a solidly blue seat, he will have no trouble in the general election against Martinez, whereas he would've faced a tougher campaign against a fellow Democrat.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Mar 13, 2024 7:52 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

No runoff after all in North Carolina's 6th

Various news organizations (including ABC News) had projected that Republicans Addison McDowell and Mark Walker would advance to a runoff election in North Carolina's 6th District. However, that contest has now been called off. According to Spectrum News's Reuben Jones, Walker is taking a job with Trump's campaign and will not request a runoff after all. (In North Carolina, the second-place finisher has to request a runoff, it doesn't happen automatically.)

This maneuver is probably not a coincidence given that Trump endorsed McDowell in December. Regardless, it means that McDowell will be the GOP nominee here and very likely the district's next congressman, since Trump carried the 6th District by 16 points in 2020.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538



Mar 13, 2024 2:49 PM
By Nathaniel Rakich

Some projections in California

The general-election candidates are set in one of this fall's most competitive House races. ABC News reports that in California's 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas are projected to advance to the general election, setting up a rematch of the 2022 race that Valadao won by just 3 points.

In addition, ABC News reports that Democrat Sam Liccardo and Democrat Gil Cisernos are projected to make the general election in California's 16th and 31st districts, respectively. Their general-election opponents, however, are still TBD.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Mar 05, 2024 10:49 PM
By Meredith Conroy

Progressive candidates we're watching tonight

For the past three election cycles, 538 has tracked key progressive groups' endorsees to get a sense of Democrats' intraparty dynamics following the 2016 presidential primary, which drew out sharp ideological factions and spurred an ambitious progressive movement working to make its mark on the party. For example, in 2018, now-Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley shocked the political world by unseating 20-year incumbents in Democratic primaries. In 2020, fellow progressives Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush won their own upsets against long-serving members. But in 2022, fewer progressives were successful in unseating incumbents. One was Oregon's Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated Rep. Kurt Schrader despite Biden's endorsement of the incumbent, but went on to lose in November.

Today's races may not answer whether progressives candidates this year will unseat incumbents — none of the races we're watching tonight pit incumbents against notable progressives. Has the progressive caucus's appetite to challenge incumbents cooled as they worked with the rest of their party to help Biden pass his legislative agenda? Or are they preoccupied preparing to play defense against expected challengers of their own?

At least one incumbent on a primary ballot today notably doesn't have a progressive challenger: In Texas's 28th District, progressives have passed on a third attempt to unseat Rep. Henry Cuellar, after backing attorney Jessica Cisneros in both 2020 and 2022. In those cycles, progressive groups attacked Cuellar's conservative positions on issues like abortion and gun control, but Cuellar narrowly defeated Cisneros each time. Although the state director of the Working Families Party has criticized Cuellar this cycle, no progressive challenger has emerged, and today he will coast to the nomination.

Of course, progressive candidates aren't just trying to replace incumbent Democrats who they think are out of step with the modern party. They're running in primaries for open and competitive races all over the country, like California's Senate contest and California's 40th District race, where Democrats hope to unseat Republican Rep. Young Kim in November. To get the full picture of the progressive wing's electoral strategy and success rates in 2024, we're once again tracking candidates who have received endorsements from any of the following key progressive groups: Justice Democrats, Indivisible, the Working Families Party, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, the Sunrise Movement, and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Throughout the evening, we'll share tables like this one with updated results as we find out how progressives (and other candidate groupings in both parties — like women and Trump endorsees) fare in today's primaries.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


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