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4th of July weather forecast across the US: What to expect

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Fourth of July forecast across country
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
ByKenton Gewecke and Emily Shapiro
July 03, 2025, 3:34 PM

Severe storms are closing in on the Northeast and extreme heat is headed to the Midwest as Americans gear up to enjoy the long Fourth of July weekend.

Here's what you need to know about the holiday weather forecast:

If you're hitting the road in the Northeast on Thursday afternoon or evening, be mindful of storms.

A level 2 out of 5 severe risk is in place across the Northeast, from Philadelphia to New York City and Vermont to Maine. Be prepared for damaging winds, lightning and possibly large hail.

People swim in the newly opened Gottesman Pool at the Davis Center in Harlem Meer on the first day of the summer pool season in New York, June 27, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images

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A level 2 severe risk is also in effect in North Dakota, where damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are possible.

On July 4, temperatures will be abnormally high in the Upper Midwest.

A heat advisory is in effect in Minnesota, where the heat index -- what temperature it feels like with humidity -- could near 100 degrees. On Saturday, Chicago is forecast to reach 97 degrees.

Independence Day high temperature forecast.
ABC News

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The heat will then spread to the East. Burlington, Vermont, could hit a record-tying 95 degrees on Sunday.

In Texas and the West, temperatures will be below average on Friday. The high temperature is forecast to reach just 82 degrees in Los Angeles and Dallas. In San Francisco, the high temperature will be just 62 degrees.

Dallas will rebound to temperatures in the mid-90s by Saturday.

Hot holiday afternoon temperatures.
ABC News

There’s also fire danger on the Fourth of July. Red flag warnings are in place for parts of Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah.

Meanwhile, Florida will have widespread showers and thunderstorms on July 4.

Through Monday, rain totals could reach 4 inches in parts of Florida, while coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas could see up to 2 inches of rain.

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