Is the tide starting to turn against Putin in Ukraine? ANALYSIS
Is something shifting in Russia? That is the question that close watchers of the Kremlin have been asking for the past couple of weeks.
Some well-known analysts and journalists have detected a subtle change in the mood toward Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine, now well into its fifth year. There is a sense in Russian society, they write, that Putin seems a little less in control of events, along with a deepening pessimism about the war and growing frustration with the government over the economy and repression, in particular recent drastic restrictions on the internet.
“Putin is losing his magic,” Alexander Baunov, a prominent political thinker, wrote recently in an essay for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Victors are not judged, the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin liked to say. But non-victors can be – and people are beginning to judge Putin.”
The shift was illustrated by Russia’s annual Victory Day celebrations on May 9, when Putin historically presides over a military parade on Red Square. The event, marking the Soviet triumph in World War II, has long been a core symbol of Putin’s power. But for the first time in two decades, hundreds of tanks and military vehicles did not take part, after the Kremlin acknowledged fears it could not protect them from Ukrainian attacks.
It was a remarkable admission of weakness. In an effort to shield the parade, Putin sought a three-day ceasefire, succeeding in persuading President Trump to pressure Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy into accepting it.
Putin’s aura is being dented by Ukraine. It was clear to Russians that the war was not going well, but recently Ukraine has begun bringing the war back to Russia with increasingly effective long-range drones. Ukrainian drones and domestically-produced cruise missiles now hit deep inside Russia most weeks, inflicting serious damage on oil and gas facilities. This month, Russians watched aghast as the port of Tuapse was engulfed in thick, choking smoke after a major refinery there was struck repeatedly.
On the battlefield there are also signs that Russia may be losing the initiative. At points this winter and spring, Ukraine has regained more territory than Russia has seized, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russian pro-war commentators warn that Ukraine is increasingly opening up a gap in drone technology and is now able to relentlessly target Russian logistics behind the front line. Ukraine’s rapidly advancing drone programs also mean Russia’s already catastrophic casualties are growing – sometimes reaching around 30,000 a month, according to British and U.S. intelligence.
As the Kremlin suddenly seems more vulnerable, its security services at home have made sudden, crude, sweeping steps to seize control of Russia’s internet, blocking access to popular social media and messaging apps, such as Instagram and Telegram, and trying to force people onto a state-controlled app. Authorities have imposed mobile internet blackouts, citing the threat from Ukrainian drones.
The internet restrictions, which have severely disrupted businesses, have caused widespread anger and irritation. The discontent was illustrated by a viral Instagram post last month by Victoria Bonya, a celebrity influencer and household name in Russia who now lives abroad. In the post, which has over 30 million views, Bonya directly addressed Putin, complaining about the internet restrictions and telling him in part that Russians are afraid of him.
“The people are afraid of you, bloggers are afraid of you, performers are afraid of you,” she said, further telling Putin that there is a “thick wall” between him and ordinary people.
“You’re the president of our country. It seems to me we shouldn’t have to be afraid of you,” Bonya said.
Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin largely moved cautiously in its efforts to restrict the internet, wary of upsetting the broader public. The crude steps to limit it now, despite their obvious unpopularity, suggests a system under pressure and less confident.
“Something is shifting inside Russia,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian analyst and co-founder of R.Politik, wrote earlier this month. “Recent developments inside Russia suggest the system is struggling to cope with mounting pressures. ... Tolerance for the status quo is eroding.”
Amid the chatter of a weakened Putin, an unnamed European intelligence agency recently leaked a report to some media, including CNN and the Financial Times, alleging Putin is increasingly paranoid about a possible coup.
Most analysts have dismissed a coup against Putin as highly unlikely, but the mounting troubles with the war with Ukraine will be weakening him in the eyes of Russia’s elite.
“As a coup scenario this is exaggerated, but the gradual fading of Putin's credibility is real,” Stanovaya wrote.
More than a collapse in the regime, the impact of Putin's forces faltering in Ukraine could be making him more amenable to a ceasefire. The founder of a major Ukrainian volunteer brigade told me last year that Putin will only begin real negotiations if Ukraine succeeds in fully halting the advance of Russian forces.
Embarrassing setbacks in Ukraine could equally push Putin to dig in further. His comments last weekend suggesting he thinks the war is “coming to an end” attracted hopes, but his comments could also be seen as merely an attempt to reassure a disgruntled Russian public. Since then, he has launched the largest sustained air attack on Ukraine since the war began.
The optimism around Ukraine on the battlefield could also change again. Russia is already moving into its summer offensive, aimed at conquering key cities in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, and Ukraine continues to suffer from serious problems, in particular severe shortages of manpower.
Another summer of brutal fighting seems more likely than peace.
