With Poland drone attack, Putin is testing Europe and Trump: ANALYSIS

LONDON -- The incursion of a significant number of Russian drones into Poland is a dramatic and unsettling escalation of the war in Ukraine.

Poland and other NATO allies have said Wednesday's overnight incursion was deliberate and most independent military analysts believe the number of drones -- at least 19 -- makes it clear it was intentional.

Very few believe Russia was attempting to inflict serious damage, something that would almost certainly trigger a strong military response from NATO. Instead, Russia wanted to send a message, analysts said, aimed at intimidating and testing European NATO countries that support Ukraine.

"We have to interpret this as a probe and a warning," Mark Galeotti, a veteran Russia analyst, and a senior non-resident fellow at Prague's Institute of International Relations Prague, said on his YouTube channel.

Russia's Defense Ministry on Wednesday said its "massive" overnight drone strike was aimed only at targets within Ukraine. "No targets on the territory of Poland were planned," it said.

The incursion comes at a moment when European countries are discussing how to shoulder the main burden of supporting Ukraine, as U.S. President Donald Trump scales back U.S assistance. Those discussions include a potential military "reassurance force" in Ukraine to deter Russia after any peace agreement.

With a mass of drones crossing into NATO airspace for the first time -- into a contry that is home to the main logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine -- the Kremlin is seemingly trying to hurt European resolve to keep helping Ukraine, while also probing their capacity to respond.

The probe is to see "how does the West react," Gelotti said. "But more than that, a warning. 'Do you really want to get sucked into this conflict. Do you really want this conflict to continue rolling on.'"

Already the incursion has stirred tensions in Poland, where some have blamed it on Ukraine.

But the move is also a clear test for Trump. For months Trump has signaled he is shrinking U.S. support for NATO and Ukraine, while also reaching out to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since Trump welcomed Putin to Alaska for a summit last month, Putin has dramatically escalated air attacks on Ukraine, mounting the largest of the war in just the past few days.

Despite threatening tough sanctions, Trump has so far only eased Putin's isolation. Now Russian drones have been shot down in a NATO country for the first time since the war began. Putin, analysts believe, is clearly emboldened.

Trump's first responded to the drones with a post on social media: "What's with Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go!"

Russia's new escalation appears aimed at undermining NATO countries' confidence both in their capacity to defend themselves and in their belief that Trump will robustly assist them.

Despite NATO's reassuring statements, their response showed how European countries may not be ready to defend against large-scale drone attacks. They are set up to fight traditional air wars, not the drones that have emerged in Ukraine. Poland and NATO used some of their most advanced fighter jets to intercept some of the cheap drones and it appears only four of the reported 19 were actually shot down.

The message from Russia appears to be: Imagine if hundreds of drones were used, as in Ukraine.

The Kremlin's apparent efforts to probe NATO in Europe -- and that it feels emboldened enough to make them -- is dangerous. Poland triggered NATO's Article 4, which calls for urgent consultations and European leaders have suggested they are formulating how to boost air defenses.

But if there is no strong response from the U.S. and Europe, analysts and Western politicians have warned, the risk is Putin will be encouraged to do something similar again, raising the risks of a more dangerous confrontation.